at TPC Boston
The Dell Championship takes place at TPC Boston, a 7,342 yard par 71 track. I’m going to keep this very simple; fairways are EASY to hit, the greens are FAST BENTGRASS, and scoring conditions have traditionally been relatively EASY. Last week we saw false fronts and small greens that gave certain players lots of trouble (Jon Rahm). The greens here are fairly large, so strokes gained around the green isn’t as big of a concern (in my opinion). This field is also just 100 players with 70 + ties making the cut, so potentially 80% of the field could make that cut.
My strategy in GPPs this week; (1) I’ll look at players with excellent course history, (2) bombers who struggled last week and are in a bounce back spot, (3) solid proximity to the hole AND strokes gained on approach, and (4) to have a proper balance between leverage and chalk in my lineups.
Course History Specialist
Jordan Spieth, 10,000 – Over the last five years, Spieth has gained 24 strokes vs the field at this event. He finished 2nd last year and 4th in 2013. Over his last 12 rounds, Spieth has been one of the best putters among this group of players. Last week, he was 13th vs this field in strokes gained on approach. Factor in these large fairways, Spieth will be giving himself many opportunities to score at TPC Boston.
Paul Casey, 7,900 – Casey finished 2nd in 2016 and 4th last year. Casey’s game has been a mess over his last 16 rounds, but we saw some glimpse of hope last week. Casey is a perfect reverse regression candidate and I can’t recall the last time we were able to roster him under 8k.
Matt Kuchar, 7,500 AND Ian Poulter, 7,400 – Over the last five years, neither of these guys have missed a cut at this event. Kuchar has had some odd struggles recently, so if I were to pick one, I’d side with Poulter. However, I think both finish inside the top 25.
Kevin Chappell, 6,800 – Chap has some very respectable finishes here over the last five years; 35, 8th, 12th, 50th & 22nd. His form is no good, which will keep is ownership way down, but he has randomly popped from time to time this year. I’ll have some exposure to Chappell this week.
Players due to finish T5 or better
Hideki Matsuyama, 8,900 – I’ve been riding the Matsu train for awhile now and he hasn’t killed any of my lines. He was first in strokes gained approach last week, and his ball striking game has been incredible for weeks now. Getting off the tee and making putts is his main issue. These forgiving fairways should really help him out, let’s just hope he gets his putter going. If that happens, he can for sure finish inside the top 5.
Jon Rahm, 9,100 – Rahm destroyed many lineups last week and for me personally was placed outside of the circle of trust. Rahm struggled with those false fronts into the small greens last week. This week he gets two major upgrades for his game; forgiving fairways and larger greens. Rahm also has the ability to regain my trust and be put back into the circle. Only time will tell, but I like Rahm’s odds of trolling everyone with a T5 finish.
Tommy Fleetwood, 8,500 – Wide fairways, reachable par 5s, large greens. . . What else do I need to say? Fleetwood is the best 40-foot putter on tour and is always a threat to score eagles, its just what he does. My prediction is we see Fleetwood go real low TWICE this week.
Justin Rose, 9,300 – L50 rounds he is 3rd in total strokes gained, L36 rounds he is 3rd in total strokes gained, L24 rounds he is 2nd in total strokes gained, & the average between his L12, L8 & L4 rounds? Somewhere in the mid 30’s. From a price standpoint, Rose is ranked 9th. Rose is in the perfect reverse regression spot and is priced at a severe discount. I think Rose gets his putter worked out and we see him toward the top of the leaderboard this week.
Complete Fades (in GPPS)
Patrick Cantlay, 9,000 -> Cantlay is consistent in many things, one of those being high ownership. I need leverage this week; I’d rather pay up for Rose or Rahm or just down to Hideki.
Tony Finau, 8,800 -> Finau is also consistently massive chalk. His price is really getting up there and we have some opportunity cost issues if he doesn’t finish high this week. I’d rather pay down for Fleetwood or Reed, or move up to Hideki.
Bryson DeChambeau, 8,700 -> Yeah, Bryson is the main and ran away with-it last week. I think many will go right back to Bryson, despite him winning, and I’m just not buying it at his elevated price.
Webb Simpson, 8,300 -> I don’t like Webb’s course history, I’d also rather pay down to Paul Casey or up to Fleetwood or Reed.
Phil Mickelson, 8,200 & Aaron Wise, 7,600 -> Just two more guys who could gain some traction due to recent performance that I will be pivoting off.
Keeping it short and simple this week! Check the playbook for the rest of my plays!