0 NBA 3/13/17 Breakdown | DFS Karma

NBA 3/13/17 Breakdown

As NBA is a game where last minute real life changes are made before tipoff, always monitor breaking news up to last second

Point Guard

Cash Plays: D'Angelo Russell, Patty Mills, Ricky Rubio

Gpp Plays: Jordan Clarkson, Elfrid Payton, Kemba Walker

Game Theory:  People may be off D'Angelo Russell since he burned people last night coming well short of value. I was actually off of him yesterday but am back on him today hoping for lower ownership on Russell who has actually been playing extremely consistent basketball. Denver is terrible against guards and Russell should have a field day in this one and I suggest locking him into your cash lineups. Ricky Rubio is another PG who has been the definition of consistent in his recent form. John Wall defense bumps Rubio down slightly but I think the pace of the matchup and Rubio's consistency negates this concern. Rubio is another great option in cash today.  Jordan Clarkson absolutely went off yesterday. He hit 10x value and had an overall great game against the Sixers. Clarkson's price actually is down from yesterday and is in an elite matchup with Denver. He potentially could bust and his big game yesterday could drive up ownership so a case could be made to fade him in GPP but I think he is in for another big game tonight with a lot of upside at his price.

 

Shooting Guard

Cash Plays:  Gary Harris, Evan Fournier, Bradley Beal

Gpp Plays:  Buddy Hield, Manu Ginobili, Tony Allen

Game Theory:    Shooting guard is usually the most volatile position because of it's scoring dependency and if you're playing on Draftkings I recommend trying to play a PG at this position (such as Jordan Clarkson). My first option in cash games today will be Gary Harris is in a neutral matchup with the Lakers and will see around 35 minutes. At this price point he is hard to ignore and is usually pretty consistent in his play. He does not have much upside as his usage is lower than ideal but can easily hit value given the amount of minutes he plays.  Another solid option in cash that I often play and recommend too much is Evan Fournier. Fournier is another guard who is rolled out there for 30-35 minutes but unlike Harris, Fournier gets a decent amount of usage. If his shot is falling the Magic will allow Fournier to keep firing off shots which allows him to carry his 40 point upside.  For GPP I like Tony Allen today who is terrible offensively but an elite defender.  This is not something you usually want to target from a fantasy perspective but I think Allen has an opportunity today to get 10-15 real game points in which he could crush value through rebounds, assists, blocks, and steal. 

 

Small Forward

Cash Plays:  Brandon Ingram (FD), Harrison Barnes, Danilo Gallinari

Gpp Plays: Terrance Ross, Bojan Bogdanovic

Game Theory:  Brandon Ingram is not the most aggressive player on the court but is playing 35+ minutes a game and carries immense upside. He has actually been extremely consistent as well and is in an awesome up tempo matchup with the Nuggets tonight.  Another guy I am looking to target in cash tonight is Harrison Barnes who is very fairly priced and is going to play around 35 minutes tonight in an up tempo matchup. He does not carry a ton of upside but has a very safe floor and is a great play in cash.  A guy I really like today in GPP is Terrance Ross who people should be off because he burned them the last couple games but I truly think he is a good player and he is getting the minutes. He has 30+ point fantasy upside and at his price and ownership that will be too low makes for an awesome GPP play. 

 

Power Forward

Cash Plays:  Nikola Jokic, Larry Nance Jr., David Lee

Gpp Plays:   Julius Randle, Dirk Nowitzki, Bobby Portis

Game Theory:   Everyone will be on Nikola Jokic today. It's been a while since Jokic was chalk but he will be today and don't expect him to bust in an awesome matchup with the Lakers. He is going to be the highest raw point scorer at the position barring an injury or blowout, both of which are unlikely (knock on wood).  I do not recommend fading Jokic in cash or GPP today.  Another guy who I have been playing a lot recently is Larry Nance Jr. He has been great for cash consistently reaching 20 fantasy points. The only thing holding Nance back from having a monster fantasy game is the minutes he plays. Coming off the bench behind Julius Randle we can only expect 20-25 minutes for Nance per game. This is no problem for cash games as he average .84 FP/Min. In this uptempo game with an  awesome matchup he should crush that average.  A guy I like for GPP today is Dirk Nowitzki. People will be off him because of his age, limited minutes, and matchup (Serge Ibaka). This is actually a good matchup for Dirk playing at Toronto. The home team usually dictates the pace and Toronto's up tempo pace should translate into more shots and possessions for the Mavericks in which Dirk is capable of taking advantage of. If given the minutes tonight in a game that should stay close Dirk could have a big game. He is a GPP play only. 

Center

Cash Plays: Dwight Howard, Ivica Zubac, Nikola Vucevic

Gpp Plays: Karl-Anthony Towns, Marc Gasol, Dewayne Dedmon

Game Theory:   Dwight Howard has looked good lately and I don't expect his production to see any sort of dip as we come to the closing stretch of the NBA season. The matchup with the Spurs is not ideal but I think that will just lower the ownership of a player who has major upside and a safe floor. He is no longer the abysmal free throw shooter he once was shooting it above 60% in the second half of the season which will allow him to stay in the game longer and actually help the Hawks if the Spurs decide to try the Hack-A-Shaq strategy. For GPP my favorite play is on the opposite side of the Hawks-Spurs game in Dewayne Dedmon. He is a legit double double threat everytime he is on the floor for 20+ minutes. I project him for around 25 minutes tonight and at close to minimum price carries a lot of upside if he racks up some blocks and steals in addition to points/rebounds. 

 

Written By: Robert Viafora

DISCLAIMER: This report has been prepared and issued by AcKarmaSports LLC for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. AcKarmaSports LLC is not responsible for any losses sustained. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department at AcKarmaSports LLC at the time of publication.

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