0 Humidor Revisited | DFS Karma

Humidor Revisited

Back in February I did a story on the new humidor that’s being implemented in the Diamondbacks’ Chase Field. If you recall that story, I predicted that run production would drop by 18% or .8 runs per game. We have on month down in the 2018 season, so I thought this would be the perfect time to revisit that story and see how things are shaping up so far in Arizona.

First let’s look at the pitching staff. Last season the Diamondbacks pitchers finished 5th in the league with a 23.2 WAR. They finished a middle-of-the-road 11th with a 13.1% HR/FB. They also allowed the 7th most hard hit balls with a 33% Hard%. So far this season those numbers those numbers haven’t changed.

 

 

YEAR

SIERA

HR/FB%

HARD%

ERA

xFIP

2017

3.92

13%

33%

3.67

3.41

2018

3.02

12%

33%

2.91

3.19

 

What has changed is their runs allowed numbers. Interestingly enough, balls are being hit just as  hard, and fly balls are leaving the park at the same rate, but runs are being scored at a much lower rate.

Hitters haven’t fared much better this season. Last year the Diamondback slashed .254/.329/.445 and posted a very strong .190 ISO. In 2018, those numbers have dropped quite a bit.

 

YEAR

SLASH

ISO

HARD%

HR/FB%

2017

.254/.329/.445

.190

34.5%

15.7%

2018

.229/.312/.411

.182

34.9%

13.6%

 

That slash is very low, but the HARD% is actually a tiny bit higher. In both charts we can see that the HARD% either stayed the same or get higher, but the HR/FB% actually dropped. This could be an indication of the effect of the humidor on the flight of the baseball. A ball hit just as hard may suddenly not carry as far.

These numbers show a decrease in production on both the offensive and defensive side of the ball, but this is a collective effort by the team in all their games. To really isolate the humidors’ effects on the baseball, we need to look just at games played and the run scoring environment specifically at Chase Field.

For our run scoring environment we are looking only at games played at Chase Field by both home and away teams. When we compare those numbers to 2017, we are looking only at the 81 games played in Arizona by both home and away teams.

Teams in 2018 have combined to score 7.1 runs per game at Chase Field through the first month of the season. In 2017, Teams averaged 9.9 runs per game at Chase Field. That is a difference of 2.8 runs per game, or 227 runs over the course of the 81 games that will be plays at the Diamondbacks home. So far my prediction of a 18% decrease is run scoring has been well below the 29% decrease shown thus far. It looks like the early signs point to the humidor having a major impact on the run scoring environment in Arizona.

 

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