0 Ben's NFL Saturday Breakdown | DFS Karma

Ben's NFL Saturday Breakdown



Indianapolis Colts @ Baltimore Ravens 

Projected Vegas Score: Ravens 27, Colts 13

Quarterbacks- Jacoby Brissett hasn't posted more than 17 fantasy points in 5 weeks and it's really tough to get excited about him on the road in Baltimore. He was thrust into one of the worst situations in the NFL after getting no more than a few weeks to learn the playbook, and is playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. If you want to know my interest in the Colts on Saturday, just look at their Vegas implied team total. Joe Flacco has finally started to heat up, averaging just under 19 fantasy points per game over his last 3. The Colts were shredded by Brock Osweiler last week as he completed 12-17 for 194 yards and 2 touchdowns, adding a rushing touchdown as well. Flacco is neck and neck with Case Keenum for the top QB option on the Saturday slate, and I think I'm leaning Flacco. 


Running Backs- The Ravens rank 9th in run-defense DVOA and have been even better over the last month allowing under 4 YPC in that time frame. Frank Gore/Marlon Mack have been equally mediocre this season and I won't be targeting them in a game that the Colts are supposed to be trailing early and often. Alex Collins has seen 17+ touches in 5 straight weeks and it is especially encouraging to see his 8 targets in the passing game last week. The Colts have been gashed on the ground in recent weeks and he is the top RB play on the Saturday slate. 


Wide Receivers/Tight Ends- T.Y. Hilton has struggled on the road this season so if I was going to consider a Colts pass catcher it would be Jack Doyle at the Tight End position. With Jeremy Maclin doubtful again, Mike Wallace comes into play as he saw 10 targets with Maclin out last week. Wallace profiles well for this game with Colts top DB Rashaan Melvin ruled out again and the fact that the Colts biggest weakness on defense this season has been giving up big plays. 


Overall Outlook- Fire up your Ravens stacks.


Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers

Projected Vegas Score: Vikings 24.5, Packers 16

Quarterbacks- Case Keenum has been amazing for the Vikings in the absence of Sam Bradford and has the Vikings firmly in play as one of the favorites to win the NFC. He has averaged just under 21 fantasy points per game over his last 4 games and is a top play against a Packers defense that ranks 25th in pass-defense DVOA. Brett Hundley has been a roller-coaster for the Packers in the absence of Aaron Rodgers and he will take over once again this week with Rodgers hitting IR. He has really struggled at home, so I will pass on him against a really strong Vikings defense. 


Running Backs- Latavius Murray and Jerick McKinnon have both played well for the Vikings in recent weeks and it makes it tough for DFS. I think that McKinnon is a better player, but he isn't getting as much work (specifically in the red zone) as Murray. I will most likely continue my same strategy of preferring Murray on Fanduel and McKinnon on Draftkings, but both are fine options. Jamal Williams had more rushing attenpts than Aaron Jones last week but also saw no passing game work. I don't have much confidence in either of them going up against a Vikings defense that is 5th in run-defense DVOA. 


Wide Receivers/Tight Ends- Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs are both playable in all formats on this slate, but I always prefer Thielen. Thielen is a bit safer while Diggs is more of a boom or bust GPP option and I don't mind playing them together as well. Davante Adams is out for this game leaving Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson...and Nelson looks like he is done. Geronimo Allison saw 8 targets last week so you could look at him in in a large field GPP, but that is obviously high risk. 


Overall Outlook- It should be all Vikings and Ravens on this slate so it's going to come down to who can find the top play from the Packers/Colts to shoot you up the leaderboards. 


Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)

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