0 Ben's NFL Week 4 Breakdown | DFS Karma

Ben's NFL Week 4 Breakdown



Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers

Projected Vegas Score: Packers 26.5, Bears 19

Injury Concerns:

Quarterbacks- While Green Bay ranks just 20th in DVOA against the pass this season, we really don't have much interest in Mike Glennon. Aaron Rodgers has perennially smashed the Bears throughout his career, he put up 578 yards and 3 touchdowns in their two contests last season. He's lights out at home and the Bears defense struggles mightily without linebacker Jerrell Freeman. Rodgers is one of the top QB plays on the short slates. 


Running Backs- Jordan Howard came out with the troll job of the century last week. This guy hadn't done anything in the first two weeks, his workload was trending down and he was injured yet he comes out and puts up 140 yards and 2 touchdowns (including 5 catches) on the Steelers. I'm really not buying that performance because the fact is that when the Bears are trailing, Tarik Cohen will be the beneficiary and this sets up as a game in which they are trailing. Ty Montgomery has played on 25 more plays than any other running back this season and he has looked fantastic. The Bears have an underrated front seven but Montgomery has a solidified role in the passing game and the Packers should be winning. Montgomery is going to be in play every week based of volume alone. 


Wide Receivers/Tight Ends- The Bears Wide Receiver corps is an absolute train wreck. Tarik Cohen is literally their best receiver and it really takes them all out of play for DFS purposes even in a good matchup. The one guy you can look at is Zach Miller, he's seen 18 targets through three games and is the most reliable option for Mike Glennon. It looks like Randall Cobb will play which kind of knocks Davante Adams a bit. Jody Nelson is Jordy Nelson and will always have a prominent role in this offense with Aaron Rodgers. Martellus Bennett has seen a lot of targets for the Packers through their first three games (21) but he has done nothing with them and I, personally, can't trust him. The fact is all of these guys are in play when it's Rodgers at home in a good matchup, but I prefer Jordy and Cobb. 


Overall Outlook- With the Packers playing an overtime game on Sunday in humid weather then turning around and playing on a short week it wouldn't surprise me if they were slow to come out of the gate. If you played these short two game slates anyone is literally in play but I prefer Rodgers, Cobb, Miller and Cohen from this game. 


New Orleans Saints @ Miami Dolphins (London Game)

Projected Vegas Score: Saints 25.75, Dolphins 23.25

Injury Concerns:

Quarterbacks- Both Drew Brees and Jay Cutler line up in a good spot in what should be a really fun game on Sunday morning. The Saints rank 25th in pass DVOA while the Dolphins rank dead last...yeah you read that right. Drew Brees has played in London before which can be a HUGE factor as we just saw last week with the Jaguars having London game experience. The Saints also headed immediately to London and have been there while the Dolphins chose to go mid-week. I think Drew Brees is an absolute smash play and he's my favorite QB on the short two game slates. Jay Cutler is interesting based off the matchup, but you aren't playing him over Brees and Rodgers. 


Running Backs- The Saints running back situation is still a disaster with Adrian Peterson, Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara all seeing work. We can safely avoid them for the time being. The Dolphins situation is interesting as Jay Ajayi was injured going into last week, he played and struggled mightily earning just 16 yards on 11 carries. Ajayi hasn't practiced again this week so that's something we will need to monitor up until kickoff. 


Wide Receivers/Tight Ends- Michael Thomas, log out. I'm kidding...well sort of. Michael Thomas got loose against the Panthers strong secondary last week and should absolutely feast on this Dolphins defense. Ted Ginn is in play as a GPP dart because he can always break off a big play. Willie Snead returns from his suspension this week but Sean Payton said he wasn't going to come back into a huge workload right away based off how good Brandon Coleman has played. I don't think we can use either of those guy's confidently, but they also eliminates Coby Fleener from consideration. DeVante Parker was pretty much shutdown by Mo Claiborne last week and now figures to draw promising rookie Marshon Lattimore as he returns from a concussion. That really hurts Parker this week and if anything it boosts Jarvis Landry. The Saints have been gashed in the slot this year and Landry figures to have a huge day. 


Overall Outlook- Drew Brees, Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry are all elite plays. I still have some interest in Parker and Ginn for GPPs but the first three are some of my favorite plays of the week. I expect the Saints to come out and put on a show here while the Dolphins are playing catch up. 


Los Angeles Rams @ Dallas Cowboys

Projected Vegas Score: Cowboys 26.5, Rams 20.5

Injury Concerns:

Quarterbacks- I think this figures to be a high scoring game and the Rams should be able to hopefully keep things close. Jared Goff has been much better from a fantasy perspective this season but he still has some things to work on in real-life. The Cowboys secondary is middle of the pack in terms of DVOA against he pass (15th) and were just ripped up by Carson Palmer and Larry Fitzgerald on Monday night. Dak Prescott has ranked inside the top 12 fantasy quarterbacks each of the first three weeks of the season and now gets a Rams defense that just gave up 332 yards and 3 TD's (1 rushing) to Brian Hoyer. As a home favorite, Dak is one of the top QBs of the week. 


Running Backs- Both of the running backs in this game have been volume kings through the first three weeks and both will be in DFS consideration. Todd Gurley and Ezekiel Elliot have both played over 90% of the snaps for their teams this season and both of them have seen a huge bump in passing game work that they did not have last season. Something looks wrong with me when watching Zeke, he seems slower, but as a home favorite against the team that's given up the most rushing touchdowns he's one of the top plays of the week. Todd Gurley makes sense as a GPP leverage play, I don't think many people will be on him as a road underdog but we have seen the types of games he can have under Sean McVay. 


Wide Receivers/Tight Ends- Sammy Watkins finally hooked up with Goff in week three as he went 6-106-2 against the 49ers last Thursday night. Nobody on the Cowboys will be able to bottle him up, making him the play over Cooper Kupp for the Rams. Dez Bryant had maybe the best touchdown of the season on Monday night against the Cardinals as he just absolutely carried a pile into the end zone better than most running backs could. I'm really not scared of Trumaine Johnson on the other side and this is definitely a spot where Dez could get loose. This is a solid bounce-back spot for Jason Witten after he was invisible against the Cardinals, though he is viable in large field GPPs only. 


Overall Outlook- I think this is one of the sexier games on the slate and could easily turn into a shootout. Dak Prescott is absolutely one of the top plays at his position this week and the same can be said for Zeke Elliot. Dez Bryant, Jared Goff and Sammy Watkins are all viable in tournaments. 


Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans

Projected Vegas Score: Titans 22.5, Texans 21

Injury Concerns:

Quarterbacks- Oh man, Marcus Mariota against Deshaun Watson. Mariota has looked great this season but he's nothing more than a GPP flier on the road against a tough Texans defense. Many had written Deshaun Watson off as a bust after his first NFL start on the road on a short week with a terrible offensive line...yeah crazy I know, but it happened. Watson came out and completely balled out in Foxboro and almost escaped with his second NFL win in as many games. The Titans rank 24th in pass DVOA through three weeks of action and though I like the way rookie corner Adoree Jackson has played for the Titans, Watson is in play for GPPs especially when you factor in his rushing ability. 


Running Backs- I really have no clue what's going on in Tennessee as far as their backfield is concerned and I think we can safely avoid it this week. DeMarco Murray was supposedly nursing the hamstring injury that has plagued him since the preseason last week, then comes out and plays the majority of the snaps again. It's too thin to me to reach there and the Texans defensive line looked amazing against the Patriots a week ago. The Texans backfield isn't much better, Lamar Miller has underwhelmed pretty much since he got to Houston and rookie D'Onta Foreman has seen his usage increase in each week. I don't see a point in risking it with either of these backfields. 


Wide Receivers/Tight Ends- Rishard Matthews has quietly balled out again this season for the Titans and the addition of Eric Decker hasn't affected him at all. Over his last full season, Matthews has averaged 15 yards per catch (via: PFF) and has hauled in 68 balls. We have to consider him the best pass catching option on the Titans moving forward given the rapport he has with Mariota and the Texans secondary isn't as strong as it used to be. DeAndre Hopkins leads the NFL in targets and hasn't seen less than 8 in a game this season. This is a fantastic matchup for him and he is viable in all formats. You can look at Tight End Ryan Griffin in GPPs for Houston, he has taken over as the primary Tight End with the injury to C.J. Fiedorowicz and saw 6 targets last week. Tight Ends can be a rookie QBs best friend. 


Overall Outlook- This game should be more fun in real-life than fantasy but there are some string tournament plays here. Watson, Hopkins, Matthews and Griffin all can be used in tournaments. 


Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings

Projected Vegas Score: N/A (Sam Bradford Injury)

Injury Concerns:

Quarterbacks- I'm pretty bearish on this game compared to some of the others on the slate and I think this contest could end up decently low scoring. Matt Stafford has been awesome for the Lions this season and can I take a moment to say they were absolutely ROBBED on that called-back touchdown to end the game last week. What on earth was that? Anyways, as good as Staff has been I'm not sure we can use him in DFS on the road against a tough Minnesota defense. Case Keenum played possibly the game of his career last week against a banged up Buccaneers defense and there's no way I expect him to repeat that. 


Running Backs- The Lions running back situation is tough to evaluate, especially against a really strong Vikings run defense. Minnesota ranks 10th in DVOA against the run so far this season and I don't think there's any reason to look at them in DFS this week. #TeamDalvinCook was alive and well last week as he put 169 all-purpose yards on the banged up Buccaneers. They're going to continue to ride him heavily while Keenum is the starter and he's in play for tournaments again this week. 


Wide Receivers/Tight Ends- Marvin Jones figures to draw Xavier Rhodes who literally can shut down anyone I think. He's seen Michael Thomas, Antonio Brown and Mike Evans to start the season and not one of them has done anything against him. With Rhodes locking down the outside I think that the one guy on the Lions who can have a big game is Golden Tate. Stefon Diggs has been one of my favorite receivers in the NFL since he came into the league and I think we need to take a second and just admire how great he and Adam Thielen have been for this Vikings team. Both rank inside the top five in terms of Pro Football Focus' highest graded wideouts this season and they are doing all they can to help out the Keenum. This is a really tough matchup against the Lions secondary, but they are in play as GPP fliers. 


Overall Outlook- #TeamDalvinCook, Diggs and Thielen are all in play for large field tournaments and I really think Golden Tate could rack up a ton of catches in this one. 


Buffalo Bills @ Atlanta Falcons

Projected Vegas Score: Falcons 28.5, Bills 20.25

Injury Concerns:

Quarterbacks- The Bills have extremely negative road splits and I definitely think that will carry over here as they head to Atlanta. Tyrod Taylor has struggled with zone defenses in his career and with limited playmaking options on the outside we can cross him off our list for DFS. Matt Ryan is insane at home and he owned Sean McDermott's defense last season when he was with the Panthers. Matt Ryan is an elite DFS play this week as a big home favorite.  


Running Backs- This is one of the most interesting spots of the week. LeSean McCoy against the Falcons. By now, pretty much everyone that plays DFS knows that the Falcons are absolutely horrible against pass-catching running backs. That is exactly what Shady is and if there was ever a spot for him to have a big game, it's here. Buffalo's defense has been great this season, they rank inside the top ten in DVOA against both the pass and run. That won't stop me from using Devonta Freeman however, he is one of the top DFS RB plays. I mentioned in my week three takeaways article that Freeman has averaged 70% of the snaps for the Falcons over the last two weeks which is way up from last season. He's the clear workhorse for Steve Sarkisian and he also have very positive home splits like Matt Ryan. 


Wide Receivers/Tight Ends- Literally the only pass catcher we can look at for the Bills is Charles Clay. He's seen 6+ targets in 2/3 games this season and is 100% Tyrod's most trusted option. Julio Jones has looked as good as ever this season, he just hasn't had a blowup touchdown game and that certainly is coming soon. Mohamed Sanu and Taylor Gabriel are nothing more than deep GPP darts and we can eliminate Austin Hooper for now. Hooper has run a route 70% of the time this season but hasn't seen more than 2 targets in a game, we cannot trust that. 


Overall Outlook- The Falcons are in an absolute smash spot at home against a team that struggles on the the road and are big-time favorites. I am kind of torn on Shady McCoy, he's in the best spot he will be in all season but I just have a weird feeling about him. I will definitely have tournament exposure to him but I feel like I should be more excited about the spot. He's one of the top tournament options on the slate. 


Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns

Projected Vegas Score: Bengals 22.25, Browns 18.75

Injury Concerns:

Quarterbacks- Andy Dalton and the Bengals offense looked better in week three under new OC Bill Lazor but still nothing to get extremely excited about. I don't typically like to play Quarterbacks in divisional games but as bad as this Browns secondary has been you have to look at Dalton in GPPs. Deshone Kizer will continue to have fantasy value due to his rushing upside and the fact that he loves to throw the deep ball. The Bengals were torched by Watson's legs in week two and I could see Kizer having similar success. 


Running Backs- Finally, Joe Mixon! Bill Lazor committed to Joe Mixon in week three and that's some of the best news of the week. The Browns defense has really struggled to start the season and this is a fine tournament spot for Mixon. The Browns backfield is a mess and I am completely off it going forward, though I can see the future value in Duke Johnson as the Browns need pass-catchers bad. 


Wide Receivers/Tight Ends- This really could be A.J. Green week and I don't think many people are talking about it. Lazor made it a point to feed Green early last week and he put 10-111-1 on the Packers. The Browns secondary has been terrible to start the season and AJG has very positive splits on the road throughout his career. The Browns receivers are really a mess and I can't recommend any of them for DFS. Duke Johnson is honestly probably their best pass-catcher. 


Overall Outlook- A.J. Green is one of my favorite plays of the entire week and after that it gets kind of thin. You can look at the Quarterbacks in GPPs, I LOVE Mixon at his price point and this could be spot to fire him up in tourneys.  


Jacksonville Jaguars @ New York Jets

Projected Vegas Score: Jaguars 21.5, Jets 18

Injury Concerns:

Quarterbacks- Blake Bortles absolutely shredded the Ravens in London last Sunday going 20-31 for 244 yards and 4 touchdowns. If you think I'm buying that performance you are crazy. I honestly think people are going to want to play Bortles this week and I'm 100% not going there. The Ravens hadn't seen the field in London before they got there to warm up an clearly were not ready to play. I'm not trusting that. Another thing I'm not trusting is pretty much any Quarterback against this Jaguars defense this season and that's definitely including Josh McCown. 


Running Backs- Leonard Fournette is definitely in play for DFS against this Jets defense that ranks 25th in DVOA against the run so far this season. In a game the Jaguars SHOULD be winning he should see around 20 carries and has a good bit of touchdown equity if they get into the red zone. The Jets backfield is a mess even with Matt Forte expected to miss the game...pass. 


Wide Receivers/Tight Ends- Let's just get the Jets out of the way by saying I'm not targeting this sick Jags secondary with any of them. Marqise Lee should see a good bit of Mo Claiborne for the Jets who has suddenly become a lockdown corner. Allen Hurns has a better matchup inside and he's in play for GPPs. 


Overall Outlook- This game is pretty boring fantasy-wise. Leonard Fournette is one of the best plays of the week and Hurns makes sense in tournaments. No, I'm not playing Bortles. 


Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens

Projected Vegas Score: Steelers 22.75, Ravens 19.75

Injury Concerns:

Quarterbacks- This game sites up to be a snoozefest for fantasy as a low scoring divisional matchup. I've written about Ben's 1PM road struggles all season it feels like and that's exactly what this spot is. Joe Flacco isn't much of a DFS option, especially against the Steelers who rank 4th in DVOA against the pass this season. 


Running Backs- Le'Veon Bell still looked like he was getting up to speed last week, but if you can put up 99 all purpose yards and a touchdown on an off day I'd say that's pretty good. The Ravens backfield situation is pretty murky, but Buck Allen has a solidified role as a pass catching back. 


Wide Receivers/Tight Ends- The analysis for this game is pretty shallow, but honestly there are minimal plays from this game. Antonio Brown is Antonio Brown and he is virtually matchup proof. He's proved that despite Ben's road struggles he can still have big games, but the Ravens secondary has been very strong to start the season. 


Overall Outlook- Lev Bell and Antonio Brown in some GPPs, that's about it for DFS from this game. 


Carolina Panthers @ New England Patriots

Projected Vegas Score: Patriots 28.5, Panthers 19.5

Injury Concerns:

Quarterbacks- First, let me start by patting myself on the back for taking a stand last week and not having any Panthers exposure outside of Cam/CMC on one team. Second, NO we are not using the Panthers here either. Cam does not look right at all, and while this Patriots defense has been bad we cannot trust this offense. Tom Brady came in way under-owned at home last week and blew up. I can see that happening again here, the Panthers defense is really good but Tom is clearly on a mission this year and you can't bet against him at home. 


Running Backs- Both of these backfields have in common that they are kind of ugly for DFS. Jonathan Stewart has seen a decreasing workload in each of the last two weeks and I think we can expect Bill to gameplay to stop Christian McCaffrey and really dare Cam to beat him. CMC will always have value as a pass catcher but I'm not touching him this week. The Patriots backfield is tough to read because there's so many mouths to feed and it's not attractive for DFS whatsoever. 


Wide Receivers/Tight Ends- I'm sticking with my #Brand and fading the Panthers here, but if Kelvin Benjamin misses the game you can look at Devin Funchess in tournaments just based off the volume he will see. Brandin Cooks finally got loose last week and I expect more of the same this week, neither Bradberry or Worley will be able to keep up with him. Rob Gronkowski is always in play, but he's expensive for DFS so you could drop down to Chris Hogan who had 2 touchdowns last week. 


Overall Outlook- I really like the Patriots at home here in tournaments and they could go lower-owned once again. Fire up Brady-Cooks and mix in Gronk/Hogan in bigger GPPs. 


New York Giants @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Projected Vegas Score: Buccaneers 23.5, Giants 20.5

Injury Concerns:

Quarterbacks- This is another one of the more uglier DFS games, but there are a few plays I like here to go overlooked in tournaments. Jameis Winston is capable of having huge games, but I don't think this is the spot to use him against the Giants mainly because I think they will look to establish the run in this game. Eli Manning looked a lot better against the Eagles last week, but I don't think he's in play as a road dog. 


Running Backs- The Giants backfield is a legitimate mess and it's a waste of time even attempting to decipher that situation for DFS. The Bucs were trailing early last week and it pretty much eliminated the run from the game. The Giants rank 29th in DVOA against the run so far the year and I think, at home, the Bucs will come out and look to pound the rock then take a few deep shots. Jacquizz Rodgers is the main guy for Bucs with Doug Martin still suspended, and he has GPP appeal. 


Wide Receivers/Tight Ends- Odell Beckham looked healthy last week as he hung 9-79-2 on the Eagles secondary. Based off the injury status of some of these Bucs defenders he could be come more appealing as the week progresses. Mike Evans figures to be shadowed by shutdown corner Janoris Jenkins leaving Desean Jackson matched up with Eli Apple. Eli Apple has been horrendous this season and I'm going right back to the DJax well after he paid off for me last week. 


Overall Outlook- DJax is one of my favorite GPP plays of the week again and you have to consider Rodgers at his price point. Odell will become more interesting once we get clarity on some of the Bucs injury situations, but now that he's healthy he's always a top option.


Philadelphia Eagles @ Los Angeles Chargers

Projected Vegas Score: Chargers 24.25, Eagles 23.35

Injury Concerns:

Quarterbacks- I think this will be one of the most fun fantasy games of the day and there's plays to love on both sides. Carson Wentz has been a great fantasy Quarterback this season, but I think we can avoid him in week four against a tough Chargers secondary. This is a prime bounce-back spot for Philip Rivers who struggled against the Chiefs last week. The Eagles secondary is hurting without Ronald Darby and they've given up an average of 266 yards through the air this season. 


Running Backs- The Eagles probably have the stone worst backfield situation in the NFL and it got even worse when Darren Sproles broke his arm and tore his ACL on the same play last week. Pause: How the hell do you even do that? Anyways, we can avoid eagles backs in week four. Melvin Gordon is banged up and played under 50% of the snaps last week though he did come back into the game after heading to the locker room. I think it's a reach going for a banged up Melvin in DFS this week. 


Wide Receivers/Tight Ends- Alshon Jefferey should be bothered by Casey Hayward for the majority of the game and that's not a situation I want any part of in DFS. That should once again boost the value of Zach Ertz who is becoming a smash play week in week out at a volatile Tight End position. Ertz is seeing 8 targets per game (more than a lot of WRs) and has one of the safest floors on the slate. Yes, yes yes. This is what I've been waiting for. Keenan Allen and Tyrell Williams against the Eagles secondary. Keenan Allen should see a lot of Patrick Robinson in the slot who got roasted by Sterling Shepard last week. Tyrell will line up outside on Jalen Mills who has been one of out favorite targets this season. Both of these guys are in elite spots ad Keenan Allen might be my favorite WR play overall, if not it's close. 


Overall Outlook- Rivers-Allen-Tyrell-Ertz stack stack stack it up! I love this game and I can see the winning tournament rosters having at least some part of this game. It could easily shoot out. 


San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals

Projected Vegas Score: Cardinals 25.75, 49ers 18.75

Injury Concerns:

Quarterbacks- Brian Hoyer had a big game last Thursday night against the Rams but I really don't see how they keep this game close. Not an easy way to start the season drawing the Panthers, Seahawks and Cardinals 3/4 games but we can avoid Hoyer on Sunday. So, Carson Palmer is done huh? That's all I saw for over a week on Twitter yet he's THIRD IN THE NFL IN PASSING YARDS. The whole Palmer is done narrative was a legit joke and I will continue to mock anyone that said it. San Francisco ranks 30th in DVOA against the pass this season and this is another solid spot to look at Palmer in GPPs. 


Running Backs- Carlos Hyde has been a bell cow for the 49ers this season but this is a tough matchup on the road against Arizona in a game where they should be losing early. The Cardinals backfield is a joke with David Johnson injured and I wouldn't be looking at any of their options in DFS. 


Wide Receivers/Tight Ends- Pierre Garcon will be shadowed by Patrick Peterson this week and that's the only reasoning I need not to play him. For the Cardinals, this is another fantastic spot for Larry Fitzgerald who finally got loose against the Cowboys on Monday night. Fitzgerald is one of the safest plays on the slate this week and you can look at guys like J.J. Nelson and Jaron Brown in large field tournaments. 


Overall Outlook- Larry Fitzgerald is a great play this week and outside of him I really only have some interest in Palmer in tournaments. 


Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos

Projected Vegas Score: Broncos 24.75, Raiders 21.75

Injury Concerns:

Quarterbacks- This is an interesting game. I don't think you can use Derek Carr at all on the road against the #NoFlyZone after struggling on Sunday night football. Trevor Siemian isn't an elite play whatsoever, but this Raiders defense is so bad that he can be looked at as a salary saver at QB. 


Running Backs- The Raiders running back situation is too crowded to consider for DFS. Marshawn Lynch has seen his workload decrease each week and they are clearly saving him for later on in the season. Last week Jamaal Charles saw more carries than C.J. Anderson but I think that reverts back to Anderson IF the Broncos are winning this game. 


Wide Receivers/Tight Ends- Like Derek Carr, It's really hard to consider any of these pass catching options for the Raiders in DFS against this defense on the road. I love Amari Cooper but even though I'm all about staying on #Brand i cannot recommend him here. As for the Broncos, both Manny Sanders and Demaryius Thomas are in consideration. The Raiders have given up 252 yards per game through the air this season and Emmanuel Sanders should feast in the middle of the field against this terrible linebacker corps. He's one of my favorite GPP plays of the slate and Demaryius Thomas could easily find the box as well. 


Overall Outlook- I LOVE Manny Sanders this week and I still don't think he will garner much attention across the industry. DT is also in play and I think he honestly has a safer floor, I will have exposure to both. 


Indianapolis Colts @ Seattle Seahawks

Projected Vegas Score: Seahawks 27.25, Colts 14.25

Injury Concerns:

Quarterbacks- The night cap game should be full of fantasy goodness. Jacoby Brissett looked like Mike Vick against the Browns last week, and while I think he can be a solid NFL Quarterback I don't think he's doing that in Seattle. Russell Wilson might be my favorite Quarterback play of the week at home against a terrible Colts defense. Russ finally looked good last week, though the Doug Baldwin injury situation does hurt him.


Running Backs- We can definitely avoid the Colts RBBC in Seattle. C.J. Prosise has already been ruled out for the Seahawks and that only boosts my boy Chris Carson's stock more. If you have read any of my articles this season dating back to the preseason you know how high I've been on Chris Carson. The 7th round rookie has looked like their best back all season and now gets an even bigger passing game usage bump. The Colts have been surprisingly tough against the run so far this season, but I'm not ignoring Carson as a 2 touchdown home favorite. He's a top RB value play this week. 


Wide Receivers/Tight Ends- TY Hilton went bananas against the Browns last Sunday and I just think it's a bit thin to chase the points against this Seahawks team on the road. Jack Doyle really let me down last week but I think he could be a decent dart throw at low ownership in a tournament, but I'm not really excited about him. Doug Baldwin looks like he's going to play despite having an MRI on his groin. If he's anything close to 100% he's in a tremendous spot and I also like Tyler Lockett to see a usage bump with Baldwin not fully healthy. Lockett played 90% of the snaps last week against the Titans. 


Overall Outlook- This is a dream matchup for the Seahawks at home and let's all take a moment to boo Draftkings for eliminating this game from the main slate. I love Russ and either Baldwin/Lockett here and even think Chris Carson is cash game playable. 


Analysis for the Monday night game will be posted on Monday!


Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)

Note: DVOA ranks provided via Football Outsiders


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