0 Bobby's NFL GPP Breakdown + Game Theory: Playoffs Week 1 | DFS Karma

Bobby's NFL GPP Breakdown + Game Theory: Playoffs Week 1

The NFL playoffs are finally here! This is not going to be like my normal article but instead will be a game theory article on how you should attack this slate with some GPP plays mixed in.  Sorry about it being posted so late this week but will be out on Friday for the rest of the NFL playoffs.

 

Let's get started.

 

The first things that are going to draw everyone's attention are the two 48 point totals in the Falcons/Rams and Panthers/Saints game.  This is where most of the ownership is going to come in as a result of the huge total.  So in GPP's where we are trying to get contrarian and find low ownership, in the NFL playoffs, we can actually ignore the Vegas totals.  Not so much as ignore them as use them to our advantage to target players from the "low-total" games.  This is the playoffs and anything can happen.  Vegas isn't always right and catching their off days is what gives us a huge edge over the field in GPP's.  The first game I'll take a look at with you all is the Titans/Chiefs game.  During the regular season, the Chiefs actually ranked 31st against the run.  We've seen what Derrick Henry can do and with Murray out he becomes an elite GPP play in all formats.  He'll end up being the 5-6th owned running back with the potential to be RB1 or RB2 on the week.  Another interesting stat is that the Chiefs are last in the league in yards given up against WR1's.  Rishard Matthews has upside and nobody is going to play him because of the Vegas total this week.  I will have a lot of Henry and Matthews mixed in but not sure I can play Mariota this week with some of the other QB's on the board.  In the other contrarian game, we want to target which is the Bills/Jaguars we can find some value hidden as well.  Nobody is going to play Tyrod Taylor.  Absolutely nobody.  The Jaguars defense is elite we know that, but it doesn't mean they're invincible.  I think the Jaguars are going to win this game but I do think the Bills are going to score points.  Taylor has the ability to make plays with his legs which raises his floor/upside we don't get from any other QB on this slate outside of Cam Newton (who is a good play but is going to have a ton of ownership).  Taylor is a risky play but I think brings more upside than half of the QB's on this slate.

 

If you have any questions or suggestions for what you would like to see added to this article next week let me know and I will be sure to add it for all of you.  As always DM @DF_Advantage or @DFS_Karma on twitter if you have any questions.  Good luck everyone I hope we see some $$ screenshots come Sunday night/Monday morning!

 

Written By: Bobby Viafora

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