*THIS ARTICLE IS DESIGNED SPECIFICALLY FOR GPP ENTRY CONTESTS ON DRAFTKINGS. MY GOAL WHEN SHARING MY THOUGHTS/INFORMATION WITH YOU ALL IS THAT THESE PLAYERS COME IN UNDER 10-15% OWNED IN GPP’S. TO FIND PLAYERS THIS LOW OWNED, WE ARE TAKING ON A “BUST RISK”. THIS IS THE TYPE OF RISK AS A GPP PLAYER YOU NEED TO TAKE DOWN A TOURNAMENT. *
Tier 1: Tom Brady ($7,600 DK / $8,800 FD)- Coming off an embarrassing loss to the Dolphins in Miami, I have heard many sports podcast hosts ask the question if this performance was due to Brady’s old age. They think that father time has caught up to Tom Brady after ONE bad performance. This is absolute madness and I still don’t understand why people continue to doubt Brady’s CURRENT abilities. Brady is not going to be high owned this week even though he is in a pretty good matchup against an over-rated defense. I don’t need to spit out statistics on this call to convince you Brady is good. The ownership of Brady this week is going to be criminal and IMO is going to be the highest scoring QB of the week which is 100% paying up for in all formats.
Stat Prediction: 380/4/0
Tier 2: Jared Goff ($6,200 DK, $7,600 FD) – It’s no secret I’m a huge fan of Jared Goff and how much this Rams team has turned around after jumping on the team in Week 1. The offensive line for this Rams team is, in my opinion, one of the best in the NFL. I think this OL has played a major factor in Todd Gurley’s 3rd-year success story in addition to Goff’s turnaround. This Seattle defense is no longer the “Legion of Boom”, instead I like to call it the “Legion of Whom?” – because their entire defense has gone down with injuries bringing up backups and their backups left and right. Seattle ranks 15th against the pass in DVOA which is extremely mediocre considering their reputation. With the masses on the Russell Wilson/Seattle part of this game, I urge you to go contrarian and ride the Goff train on another week where he will go low owned in GPP’s.
Stat Prediction: 315/3/1
Tier 3: Blake Bortles ($5,700 DK, 7,400 FD) – I was listening to a “Pardon My Take” podcast by Barstool Sports on my 5-hour drive home today and my love for Blake Bortles just increased. This man is not only a stud on the field but he’s actually a hilarious guy off the field. The Jaguars have taken the league by storm this season and I don’t expect them or Bortles to lay off the gas pedal in the closing weeks of the 2017 NFL season. Houston’s defense is just broken without JJ Watt and they have fallen off to 18th pass DVOA. There are many concerns that the Jaguars will blow out Yates and the Texans in this game which would, in theory, be a negative for Blake Bortles. This is actually the contrary. In 4 games where Bortles has averaged over 31 pass attempts, the Jaguars have an average margin of victory of over 26 points. This is an insane stat which leads me to believe that the Jaguars will allow Blake to run the score up with his arm to build his confidence for what will be his first playoff appearance.
Stat Prediction: 310/3/2
PERSONAL FAVORITE PLAY (FP/$): Blake Bortles
RUNNING BACK :
Tier 1: Todd Gurley ($8,300 DK, $8,400 FD)- I think Gurley makes for an awesome GPP stack with Goff this week as the entire world will be on Seattle and Wilson as I said when I gave my analysis on Jared Goff this week. After ripping apart, the 4th ranked DVOA run defense in the NFL last week, I think it’s fair to say that Gurley is matchup proof. This offensive line is just too good and opens so many holes for Gurley to smash through, not to mention Gurley’s involvement in the passing game which raises his floor/upside immensely. Now Gurley will match up against the 9th run DVOA in the NFL coming off three games in which he has averaged a first down or recorded a touchdown on 27.5% of his rushing attempts. Not to mention his 61.5% rate of recording a first down/touchdown when targeted. Gurley is an amazing play this week and his ownership should be suppressed because of the matchup.
Stat Prediction: Rushing- 100/2 Receiving- 4/30/0
Tier 2: Christian McCaffrey ($6,000 DK / $6,900 FD)- People seem to forget about McCaffrey after the first few weeks of the season after the hype died down a bit. Christian McCaffrey, IMO, has been everything the Panthers have given him the opportunity to do so far this season. Coming off a week where Jonathan Stewart had a huge game I expect people to be off McCaffrey even more in fear he will lose touches to the hot hand this week. I am not as concerned. I think this game stays extremely close with Aaron Rodgers back and I think Christian McCaffery will be the key to the Panthers winning this game. While GB is solid against the run, I think that will only help McCaffrey’s involvement in the passing game and limit touches for Stewart. The Packers, however, rank 19th DVOA against pass-catching running backs giving up an average of 48.4 yds/game. McCaffrey is no ordinary receiving back and I think he pops off for a huge receiving game come Sunday.
Stat Prediction: Rushing - 55/0 Receiving – 7/75/1
Tier 3: Lamar Miler ($5,600 DK / $6,200 FD)- In recent weeks, Miller’s touches and snap % is trending upwards. People think about the Jaguars defense and think that they are invincible. What a lot of people still don’t realize is that the jaguars are extremely susceptible against the run. Through 14 weeks, the Jaguars rank 29th DVOA against the run, which is actually insane for how good this team has been. If the Texans want to stand any chance this week they are going to need to establish the run early. Don’t be surprised to see Miller have a big day.
Stat Prediction: Rushing- 20/100/1 Receiving- 4/25/0
PERSONAL FAVORITE PLAY (PT/$): Lamar Miller
Tier 1/2: Brandon Cooks ($7,100 DK / $7,400 FD) - Well you all know how much I love Tom Brady this week so why wouldn’t I love one of his high ceiling receivers. Cooks has not been very consistent this year but has had his moments, including his 5/131/2 and 6/149/1 performances earlier on this season. Cooks has this type of upside to pop off on any given week and given the hype around this game and the high probability of a shootout I love the odds that Brandin Cooks breaks loose.
Stat Prediction: 9/120/1
TIER 1/2: Josh Gordon ($6,800 DK / $7,500 FD) – I know the hometown Cleveland guys love this call but it’s legit and so is Josh Gordon. People are going to shy off of him this week because of the tough matchup with the Baltimore Ravens this week who do play some great defense. However, Gordon has already opposed arguably the best CB in the NFL and took him for 4 catches and 85 yards. The type of upside Gordon has shown through his first two weeks back in the NFL are unheard of and I am going to have plenty of Josh Gordon this week even with his difficult matchup.
Stat Prediction: 5/90/1
Tier 3: Martavis Bryant ($4,500 DK, $5,900) - You know we’re going to need to bring someone back from this Pittsburgh game, right? Well no for GPP’s I won’t be listing the obvious Antonio Brown or Le’Veon Bell, albeit they are great plays this week (at a high price tag). With JuJu probable, this week Bryant will be a complete afterthought in this Pittsburgh offense. Not for me and my GPP lineups. Bryant has a very good chance of having a huge game. In games with JuJu and Brown playing, Bryant still was seeing 5-6 targets. With JuJu out last week Bryant saw 10 targets against the Bengals. JuJu looks like he won’t be 100% if he plays this week which will contribute to a larger workload for Bryant. We really haven’t seen a huge game out of him this year but he is the type of player to win you a million dollars.
Stat Prediction: 6/120/
PERSONAL FAVORITE PLAY (PT/$): Martavis Bryant
Top Play: Evan Engram($5,600 DK / $6,300 FD) – What Evan Engram has been for the Giants this year is their only bright spot. Engram has not gone down with any serious injuries and has been consistent for the Giants this entire season. Coming off his biggest game of the year I only expect Engram to continue to push the bar and put up a big performance. The Eagles are 19th DVOA against the TE and should have major matchup issues with Engram this week. I feel more confident in Engram with Eli at QB and am actually expecting a big upset this week for the Giants over the Eagles in which Engram will play a huge part
Stat Prediction: 6/80/1
GAME THEORY ANGLE FOR THIS WEEK:
Now let's get into some strategy for Week 15.
If you've been using my article you've had massive success this NFL season and that's only going to continue as I spend 15+ hours per week on finding the best GPP plays and putting them all into this article for you. Along with my article make sure to be utilizing all the content/tools/articles/livestreams/lineups we provide at DFS Karma. Trust what we've done, trust what we're doing, and follow us to the money this week.
Another part of NFL DFS that a lot of players are slow to implement is game stacking. There is a MAJOR correlation between being in the top 1% of scoring with your lineup and implementing a game stacks. I'll give away my favorite game stack of the week right here. Brady/Cooks/Gronk and then coming back with Martavis Bryant.
I will be giving out more of my low-owned GPP's plays throughout the weekend between our Livestream tomorrow night and a periscope Q&A sometime either Saturday night or Sunday morning! Make sure to stay tuned and thanks for reading! I better see ALLLL the screenshots Monday morning with all of you RAKING in the cash! LET'S GOOOOO! #MONEYTEAM
WRITTEN BY: @ DF_ADVANTAGE - Follow me on Twitter :)
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