*THIS ARTICLE IS DESIGNED SPECIFICALLY FOR GPP ENTRY CONTESTS ON DRAFTKINGS. MY GOAL WHEN SHARING MY THOUGHTS/INFORMATION WITH YOU ALL IS THAT THESE PLAYERS COME IN UNDER 10-15% OWNED IN GPP’S. TO FIND PLAYERS THIS LOW OWNED, WE ARE TAKING ON A “BUST RISK”. THIS IS THE TYPE OF RISK AS A GPP PLAYER YOU NEED TO TAKE DOWN A TOURNAMENT. *
Tier 1: Aaron Rodgers ($7300 DK / $9,300 FD)- On Draftkings, playing Aaron Rodgers this week is extremely contrarian considering the EXTREMELY tight pricing. On Fanduel, he should be a much more popular play considering their pricing model is much softer and allows you to pay up at QB and still get all the chalky "elite" plays you want. Aaron Rodgers to me makes for an elite play on DK where, like I said, no one will have him. Cam Newton figures to be pretty chalky this week and there is a strong possibility I will have 0 shares of him. I know, extremely bold considering he's up against the 32nd ranked DVOA team. Newton has not looked himself to start the year, is dealing with an ankle injury, has his most reliable receiver (Greg Olsen) out for the game, and a team implied total that has only dropped. If this chalk doesn't scream FADE, I'm not sure what will (especially to a GPP player). Aaron Rodgers, however, has a lot of positive things going for him. The most important part for me is that Jordy Nelson is expected to play. In week 1 when targeting Nelson (8 times), Rodgers posted a 147.4 QB rating which is good for 3rd highest in the league (PFF). Not only do they have Nelson but they have Randall Cobb and Geronimo Allison who qualify as 2/3 WR's who have 200+ routes run since the start of 2016 and have not dropped a pass. The Packers team implied total is RISING and currently sits at 27.5 points. I don't expect the TD's to be vultured by an RB as their starting RB is a slot receiver! We saw last week that the Packers will still run a pass-first offense when on the 1-yard line (Rodgers-Montgomery TD). Rodgers has the highest upside of any QB on this slate IMO and will be <10% owned (I hope). Here's another bold call for you, Rodgers is the highest raw point scorer on the slate. Yea, you can say I'm on him in Week 3.
Tier 2: Kirk Cousins ($6,100 DK, 7,600 FD) - Outside of Khalil Mack this Raiders defense is #BAD. They rank 22nd in pass DVOA and 26th against the run. Game script was not in favor of Cousins and the Redskins pass game as we saw only 44.1% of pass attempts in 68 snaps. This should not be the case here as the Redskins are +3 home dogs and will be looking to air it out. With Rob Kelley dealing with a rib injury and questionable to play this week I love this Redskins pass game, even more, = Kirk Cousins. Thompson is arguably a better back than Kelley (according to PFF he actually is) and has a primary role as a receiving back. In DFS it doesn't matter how many "air yards" Cousins throws if the only time an RB is involved it's when Cousins is dumping passes off that turn into 20+ yard completions. The Redskins offensive line is good but did you know they have the 3rd ranked offensive tackle (Trent Williams) in the entire league (PFF)? I didn't think so. Cousins looks like a reasonably priced elite option on a week where pricing will play a huge role in deciding factors.
Tier 3: Deshon Kizer ($5,000 DK / $6,900 FD) - Aw man! I can't-do a Jared Goff breakdown this week (who by the way currently is EATING in Thursday night football – God he is such a beast)?!?! Darn! When one door closes another one opens. One of my man crushes at QB this week is Kizer. Against a Colts team ranked 27th DVOA against the pass I expect Kizer to do some damage. There are two things we've seen Kizer likes to do in his first 2 games in the NFL... Run and throw the ball FAR. Both factors have me and the DFS Karma team drooling at from a fantasy perspective. The Colts have allowed the most 20+ yard passes this season and Kizer ranks highest this season in air yards/completion (via airyards.com). The only real negative I see for Kizer is the fact that Corey Coleman just went down with a broken hand and Kizer's throwing to a practice squad call-up along with unmotivated Kenny Britt. I've heard reports that the Browns are begging Britt to "try a little harder" (I know how pathetic – Britt literally robbed the Browns blind) so hopefully that big motivational speech can get him going when they desperately need someone to step up. Kizer is going to be one of my highest owned QB's on DK considering he allows us to fit in some of the studs at other positions. On FD however, I recommend sticking to Rodgers as your highest owned QB.
PERSONAL FAVORITE PLAY (FP/$): Deshon Kizer
RUNNING BACK :
Tier 1: LeVeon Bell ($8,800 DK, 8,700 FD)- It has been 2 weeks now that we have all been burned by Bell. Not this week though! I swear! No really, Bell is an AWESOME play this week at what I think will be the cheapest we see him this season (on either site). He's much easier to fit in on FD which will obviously make him chalkier but on DK where the crowd should be tired of paying a premium at RB for someone who has burned them twice I expect to see some depressed ownership. Our worries Week 1 were wiped away in Week 2 as Bell saw his workload spike to playing over 90% of snaps and getting 27 carries with 4 targets. Facing the Vikings was always going to be a tough challenge for Bell which showed, now against a much softer Bears defense (don't get me wrong I still respect their front 7) I expect Bell to breakout this week. Bell is PPR gold as he's heavily involved in the passing game as well as a good bet to break the 100-yard bonus on DK any given week. You're doing DFS wrong if you're going to take the wait and see approach at the best running back in the NFL. (BTW just to throw this out there now that I've listed Bell in a breakdown – Saquon Barkley is the next Le'Veon Bell, just younger and quite possibly better. So whatever team drafts him this year you better hope you're a fan).
Especially on DK where you are tight on pricing, Bell is the only RB that is warranted paying up for IMO this week. On Fanduel where pricing allows you to get anyone (SMH) I love Jay Ajayi ($8,200). They're heavy favorites in this game which allows for a positive game script for Ajayi. I don't see good ole Jay Cutler throwing for 300-3 here so load up on Ajayi against a team whose run defense has allowed 185 yds/game and ranks 27th DVOA against the rush.
Tier 2: Ty Montgomery ($6,900 FD / $7,200 DK): As much as I hate Montgomery for scoring two 1 yard TD's last week where I faded him on a $333 primetime slate at 87% owned you got to love him as a mid-tier option this week. God this pains me to recommend. You guys know how much I love Rodgers this week and I think that Montgomery makes the perfect compliment, especially on DK where you're given the full PPR. Like I mentioned before Montgomery was once a full-time slot receiver so obviously has the hands you need as a receiving back. In a game that heavily favors the Packers the game script is also in Montgomery's favor. Ranked in the bottom 3rd in the league in run DVOA we don't need to worry in that department. Montgomery is still underpriced considering the type of usage he gets in this high-powered Packers offense, even if he ends up being popular, plug him in.
Tier 3: Christian McCaffrey ($6,100 DK / $6,800 FD)- SHIT! What are you waiting for McCaffrey?! Don't you know people are playing good money on DFS with you in their lineups??? Those people meaning me. Gosh has McCaffrey not lived up to the hype so far this season. As one of the most polarizing players coming into the NFL McCaffrey has just been meh. In my opinion, I think it's the way the Panther's are utilizing him that is hurting his overall production (mainly rushing between the tackles). If there was ever a week to get right for McCaffrey it'd be week 3 against the Saints. As –6 favorites, Vegas suggests the game script should heavily favor McCaffrey. Although f****ing Jonathan Stewart is still hovering around ready to steal McCaffrey's first touchdown at any moment I still believe this is the week for McCaffrey. After two weeks of busts and a price tag that has only risen I expect to see depressed ownership on McCaffrey even in this smash spot. A lot of the sharp players I respect around the industry are down on McCaffrey as a whole and down on him in this matchup. They're wrong. McCaffrey is going to bust out this week in the passing game and prove the doubters wrong by averaging 4.5 yards/carry between the tackles (my bold prediction). McCaffrey WILL find the end zone this week.
Week 2 analysis: Yes I'm going back to the Christian McCaffrey hype train for Week 2. We did not see anything huge production wise out of McCaffrey in his debut but I think the volume and involvement were enough to roll him out again in GPP's for Week 2. He was out-touched by Stewart (19/20), McCaffrey led the team in targets (7) which are crucial in DK full PPR. McCaffrey saw 13 carries in week 1 and I expect a similar amount if not more carries for him in a game the Panthers are currently -7 favorites. So basically Vegas loves the Panthers in this spot, and I think it's a situation we can trust them. I don't think this will be the J-Stew show this week and I expect BIG things out of the rookie in Week 2. Lock and load as a high-upside GPP play. (Could end up being pretty popular but I don't care - the upside potential at this price is INSANE - he's going to go off).
Week 1 analysis: So this is the biggest question mark for Week 1 in my opinion. Many call him over-hyped, many think he won't be effective in the NFL, many think he'll split the workload. The key word is THINK. We don't know what to expect from McCaffrey in Week 1 which makes him a perfect GPP play. The expectation a lot of us have is that the Panthers get McCaffrey involved heavily from the get go. i.e. The report that says he has his own playbook with more plays than anyone on the team aside from Newton. At Stanford McCaffrey was untouchable, forcing 43 missed tackles in 2016 while not being tackled on first contact 31.8% of the time (via PFF). His ability as a receiver increases his upside even more, especially in a full PPR format like Draftkings. If healthy, this oft-injured offensive line should produce and improve on their ranking of 17th according to PFF. Opportunity will be crucial for McCaffrey in Week 1, and if it's there expect a potentially HUGE game.
PERSONAL FAVORITE PLAY (PT/$): Christian McCaffrey
Tier 1: AJ Green ($8,100 DK / $7,500 FD) - OMG. Please just lock in AJ Green on FD. If you don’t you're dumb and should quit DFS. Lol just having some fun but really AJ Green is the only WR I'm paying up for this week and you don't even have to "pay up" for him on FD. Fanduel please make your pricing sharper – DFS community. Eifert is almost guaranteed to miss this game which is a huge reason why we're so high on AJ Green this week. "But Bobby this is a GPP article why are you talking about a chalky play?" BECAUSE HE'S GOING TO SCORE TWO TOUCHDOWNS ON 200 YARDS RECEIVING, THAT'S WHY!!! All jokes aside let's get into why I'm so high on Green this week that I'm not even considering to fade him (btw if Green goes for 200/2+ you heard it here first). Even with a Vegas implied total of 19 points, I am not worried about the Bengals ability to move the ball in the air in this game. The game script is only going to help Green see more targets. Targeting the Packers secondary is the way to go, the WR position has seen 9.4 yds/attempt (2.1 yards above the league average) while also seeing a success rate of 55% (6% above the league average) (via sharpfootballstats.com). Although the Bengals have played at a slower pace, the Packers lead the league in pass attempts and have the 3rd lowest run rate. This is going to translate into more snaps and a faster-paced game for the Bengals and much more snaps for AJ Green then we would see on any given week. Lock in AJ Green as the top raw point scorer for WR's and one of the best point/$ plays on Fanduel.
I'M FADING THE OTHER "TOP TIER" WR'S AGAIN THIS WEEK ON DK- IT'S AN EASY FADE. THERE IS NO POINT IN TRYING TO JAM THESE TOP WR'S IN WHEN THERE IS PLENTY OF GOODNESS IN THE LOWER TIERS. THE PRICING IS TOO TIGHT TO WARRANT PAYING UP FOR ANYONE OTHER THEN GREEN.
TIER 2: Alshon Jeffery ($5,900 DK / $7,500)- Wow this is a painful article for me to write. I feel like every player I consider I have my fan bias in one ear yelling "NO. YOU CANNOT PLAY AN EAGLES WR AGAINST THE GIANTS. YOU'RE A DIEHARD GIANTS FAN." While in my other ear I have my DFS brain/logic speaking calmly with an intelligent British accent "Alshon Jeffery is the right play. He is off to a slow start this year but has a top 10 aDOT at 18.5 yards in addition to averaging 169 air yards/game. He is bound for some massive positive regression and this Giants secondary without Janoris Jenkins is extremely shaky. Eli Apple was exposed for big plays Monday night while Ross Crockwell is one of the worst CB's in the NFL. The Eagles are implied for 24 points which is huge considering they're up against a defense that was until recently considered one of the league's best. He's a perfect GPP play on both sites but especially on Draftkings where he is priced down because of his recent stats." Lol, that was fun and also a little weird. That's what DFS Karma is all about people. Having fun and being weird. Why do you think we have fun guys like myself and Anthony on our team while balancing that out with the weird of Mike and Trevis. Ok back to fantasy – play Alshon everywhere on Draftkings this week.
Devante Parker ($6,300 DK / $6,500 FD) - Just a disclaimer that as the week goes on if I find that an insane amount of people 15-20%+ are going to be playing Parker in GPP's I'm going to be FULL fade. But as of now, I expect him to sit between 8-12% so I am comfortable rolling him out in one of my 3 main GPP teams this week. While aDOT and air yards (which is the newest stat that is taking over the industry) isn't everything it is a piece of the puzzle. Devante Parker fits these two pieces perfectly into that puzzle as his aDOt is currently good for 9th in the league at 18.6 yds/target and totaled 176 air yards. (I'm going to put something in the game theory below about all this but keep in mind that we're working off extremely small sample sizes.) Against the 29th ranked DVOA against the pass it's easy to say that Parker is in line for a huge game considering all these factors in his favor. The only negative someone can put onto parker at the moment is the fact that the Dolphins are HEAVY favorites at –6 (this is where the Jay Ajayi chalk comes from). I'm having a hard time envisioning a game where Jay Cutler and the Dolphins blow a team out so I'm not too worried about it.
Tier 3 DeSean Jackson ($4,600 DK / $6,400 FD) - DeSean Jackson. Another play as a Giants fan I despise. But the DFS logic is just too good to look away in this one. No one is going to play Jackson this week against the Vikings away from home. No one. The Vikings are renowned as one of the best defenses in the NFL, this may be the case when it comes to run defense. This is a complete coincidence but I have the aDOT rankings from WR up in another web browser and it just so happens as Jackson ranks out 8th in aDOT this week (9th was Parker and 10th was Jeffery). I swear that's not the only thing I'm looking at and it just so happened to turn out this way – which is a good sign in my opinion. Btw his aDOT is 19.4 yards! The Vikings "elite defense" is currently bottom 10 in passing yards and touchdowns allowed while yet to give up a rushing touchdown. I don't see the Buc's sticking with an offensive scheme that features Rodgers pounding the ball so look for some low-owned, cheap, high upside from Jackson.
PERSONAL FAVORITE PLAY (PT/$): AJ Green
Top Tier: Delanie Walker ($4,400 DK / $6,500 FD) - Just don't pay up for the big dogs at TE this week, especially on DK where the pricing makes it way too hard to fit good plays if you're stuffing in Gronk because he's Gronk against one of the best defenses in the NFL. If I'm going up a bit this week at TE it's for Walker. On DK he's a complete bargain and I figure to have a lot of him this week against a Seahawks team that nobody will want to target. Walker is one of Mariota's favourite targets and a staple of consistency and upside in this Titans offense. I actually think there is a lot of fantasy goodness from this Titans team this week (Eric Decker in cash) but for the sake of listing my top plays in this article, I'll leave it at Walker.
Bottom Tier: Jack Doyle ($3,600 FD / $5,300 FD) - This guy has to have the dumbest sounding name I've ever heard. It reminds me of "Simple Jack" from Tropic Thunder if you guys have ever seen that movie (I recommend for you comedy fans). So that's what I'm going to call Doyle from now on, Simple Jack. Let's keep it simple for you this week – play Simple Jack. Simple Jack looked awesome with Brissett in their first NFL game together and caught 8 passes. While not getting in the end zone yet I could see a huge week from Simple Jack against a Browns team that has struggled early on with the likes of Jesse James and Ben Watson (yikes). Doyle is an ELITE play this week at a nice discount.
PERSONAL FAVORITE PLAY: Jack Doyle
GAME THEORY ANGLE FOR THIS WEEK :
Keep in mind a lot of these points are still in play this week so still read up: One thing to note is that there are going to be a LOT of fish (fish = inexperienced DFS players) in this first week. Everyone reading this article, watching our videos, using our lineups, etc. has a huge advantage over these "fish" already. The second thing is we are going to get our first look at what teams do with players replacing those who are injured i.e., Ware/Edelman. I also believe that there is a major contrarian advantage in Week 1. There are a lot of sharp plays (listed in this article) that are going to fly WAYYY under the radar. Another thing to keep an eye on is the possible overlay. The sites will get better at predicting what size contests they should put out to completely fill but it's the toughest for them week 1. If you're a true grinder looking for that + E/V make sure to take advantage of the overlay.
Now let's get into some strategy for Week 3. This is an awesome week to be a GPP player on DK in my opinion. The pricing is extremely tough meaning you're going to have to be an extremely smart/sharp player to put together a high-scoring lineup (or I guess you could just get really lucky). Not the point. The point is utilizing all the content/tools/articles/livestreams/lineups we provide at DFS Karma is going to be crucial in order for the DFS player to have success this week. Trust what we've done, trust what we're doing, and follow us to the money this week.
Another part of NFL DFS that a lot of players are slow to implement is game stacking. There is a MAJOR correlation between being in the top 1% of scoring with your lineup and implementing a game stack. I'll give away my favorite game stack of the week right here. Rodgers/Allison/Montgomery and then coming back with Green. I expect ¾ of this stack to be pretty popular. Allison is where I'm going to set myself apart in these huge field GPP's and I just raised a sharp plays ownership from .7% to .8%. Remember that when you're winning ALLLL the money this week. Lol.
I will be giving out more of my low-owned GPP's plays throughout the weekend between our Livestream tomorrow night and a periscope Q&A sometime either Saturday night or Sunday morning! Make sure to stay tuned and thanks for reading! I better see ALLLL the screenshots Monday morning with all of you RAKING in the cash! LET'S GOOOOO! #MONEYTEAM
WRITTEN BY: @ DF_ADVANTAGE - Follow me on Twitter :)
DISCLAIMER: This report has been prepared and issued by AcKarmaSports LLC for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. AcKarmaSports LLC is not responsible for any losses sustained. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department at AcKarmaSports LLC at the time of publication.