*THIS ARTICLE IS DESIGNED SPECIFICALLY FOR GPP ENTRY CONTESTS ON DRAFTKINGS. MY GOAL WHEN SHARING MY THOUGHTS/INFORMATION WITH YOU ALL IS THAT THESE PLAYERS COME IN UNDER 10-15% OWNED IN GPP’S. TO FIND PLAYERS THIS LOW OWNED, WE ARE TAKING ON A “BUST RISK”. THIS IS THE TYPE OF RISK AS A GPP PLAYER YOU NEED TO TAKE DOWN A TOURNAMENT. *
Tier 1: Matt Ryan ($7,400 DK / $8,000 FD)- So are we really scared about targeting a team against the Bills offense? Really? There was a MAJOR concern coming into this season that this Bills defense would be #BAD. They have held their own through the first three games of the season to check out as #2 ranked in pass DVOA. Keep in mind the players they have faced (Josh McCown @ home, Inaccurate and injured Cam Newton, and Trevor Siemian @ home where they allowed him 259 passing yards). Are the Bills really that good? Are they really number two in the league against the pass? I'm not buying it. This offense is one of the most potent in the league with a full arsenal of weapons in the skill positions all up and down the depth chart. When you factor in how the center on the offensive line is playing (ranked top offensive lineman through three weeks via PFF and third highest in the league in pass-blocking efficiency among centers) good things are bound to happen. Vegas is loving the Falcons this week as well with a 28.25 implied total. I think this is the week the masses get on the Brady train which allows us to target Matt Ryan as a perfect GPP pivot at lower ownership (with a nice discount). I expect big things from Matt Ryan and the Falcons offense this week.
Tier 2: Matthew Stafford ($6,000 DK, 7,700 FD) - Playing Matt Stafford in this spot is a huge risk. The Vikings are a much better defensive unit at home and one that we don't usually love to target. However, Stafford has never seemed to be affected by being the road team as his splits are very similar. Stafford has a plethora of weapons he can go here including Ameer Abdullah and Theo Riddick who are both very capable pass-catching backs. Although it's early in the season, to me, this Vikings defense looks like a funnel defense. Meaning that their run defense is stout which forces teams to beat them through the passing game. This should be no problem for Stafford and the Lions as this is how their offense thrives. Minnesota is ranked 27th in passing DVOA this season but has shut down opposing teams WR1 as their DVOA in that category ranks out at 8th best in the league (credit Xavier Rhodes). The Vikings have gotten beat through teams WR2 (30th DVOA) and TE (29th DVOA) which makes these the perfect positions to pair with Stafford to attack this Vikings defense. However, many people may look at this and think "Ok, well Tate is the #1 WR so I should play Marvin Jones." WRONG. The WR1 is getting shut down by Xavier Rhodes who WILL be matched up with Marvin Jones for most of this game. Tate who primarily plays out of the slot should still see his productive 10-12 target game but don't expect any huge plays out of him (he's primarily a cash play for me – or a less risky GPP play). For my GPP's I'm looking at Kenny Golladay to have a big day. It's football so there is no guarantee but I think people forgot about what this dude did week 1 (7/69/2). Eric Ebron also checks the boxes to have a bounce-back week after letting fantasy players down in week 3. I'm very bullish on this Lions offense this week even though Vegas has yet to release an implied total which leaves a big question mark on this game.
Tier 3: Blake Bortles ($5,300 DK ONLY) - The pricing on FD just completely takes Bortles off the table. However, I'm a HUGE Bortles fan and I love the spot for him on DK this week. I'm praying he flies under the radar as people identify him as a crappy real-life QB, which he is. But he can sling it with the best of them and his upside is MASSIVE, which is only boosted with a dream matchup against the Jets. Bortles looked ELITE last week in a matchup against the Ravens, who's secondary is not one that we usually look to target (ranked 2nd overall in pass DVOA). Bortles now comes back to the states for a matchup with the Jets who rank 23rd in passing DVOA. Bortles threw for four tuddies and 244 yards while giving us 1.8 additional FP on the ground with 18 rushing yards. This play definitely carries a lot of risks which is why I'm including it in my GPP article but he has as much upside as a Matt Stafford or a Matt Ryan on this slate and he's a fraction of the price (on Draftkings). Leave it to Bortles to look terrible in this game and throw 3 picks against a terrible defense after picking apart an elite one but I'm rolling with my boy Bortles this week.
PERSONAL FAVORITE PLAY (FP/$): Blake Bortles on DK – Matt Ryan on FD
RUNNING BACK :
Tier 1: Ezekiel Elliot ($8,200 DK, 8,500 FD)- FEEEEED ZEKEEEEE. FEED HIM. I'll have all the Ezekiel Elliot this week and I'm expecting a HUGE game out of him. The game script is perfect for him as the Cowboys are at home as a –6 favorite against the Rams. They also carry a huge Vegas implied total at 26.75. The Rams have looked really good against the pass this year but ranked in the bottom half of the league in rush DVOA. They have given up an average of 139 yds./game against the opposing team's backs (good for 4th worst in the league) in addition to allowing a WHOPPING 6 rushing touchdowns to opposing backs (leading league). I don't need to go over how great this Cowboys offensive line is as almost any NFL fan and DFS player knows by now, they're ELITE. Zeke is getting more work every week in the passing game as well which is only raising his ceiling. Zeke is my highest raw point scorer ON THE SLATE this week.
Tier 2: Dalvin Cook ($6,500 DK / $7,200 FD)- As I mentioned in Stafford's analysis, the Vegas total has not been released for this game yet so there are a lot of question marks at the moment. Unfortunately, there's late swap on this Thurs-Mon slate so we don't get any edge by playing Lions/Vikings players before tonight's game. However, running backs at home are highly correlated with fantasy points so we can expect the Vikings to be favored at least by a small margin in this matchup with the Lions so I'm expecting a positive game script for both Dalvin Cook and Matthew Stafford. #TeamDalvinCook has taken over the DFS Karma team as this kid is a true work-horse for the Vikings and I expect them to ride him until the wheels fall off. Cook saw 32 touches last week (27 carries – 5 targets) and if he continues to get this type of workload (especially in a favorable matchup this week) he CANNOT be ignored. I had him on one of my main GPP teams last week on Draftkings at 5.6% owned! People need to understand this kid is #GOOD and we should ride him just like the Vikings are. I expect his ownership to rise a bit this week but it's not the time to hop off the bandwagon yet. He's still way too cheap for his role in this offense. Plug and play for me this week.
Tier 3: Bilal Powell ($4,600 DK / $6,100 FD)- PLAY Bilal Powell this week. According to Ian Rapoport of NFL Network, Powell is expected to be the Jets lead back this week and have a huge workload as the teams #1 back. I've been waiting for Matt Forte to go down and the time has finally come. It does stink that it's in a tough matchup with the Jaguars but I expect that to just lower his ownership on what should be a huge week. The game script is not awesome for Powell but this game is supposed to be close and Powell plays a huge role as a pass-catching back for the Jets. His price is WAY too cheap on both sites (especially DK) for his role in this game and in my opinion, he's the free square of the week. Hate to do this but.... LOCK!
PERSONAL FAVORITE PLAY (PT/$): Bilal Powell (especially on DK)
Tier 1: Julio Jones ($8,800 DK / $8,400 FD) - Julio Jones is yet to get in the end zone for the Falcons and you know he is dying to get in on the scoring by this Falcons offense. I went over in detail how much I love Matt Ryan this week and you better believe I'm going to have a lot of teams where Ryan and Julio are paired up. Julio is really the only high tier receiver I'm looking at this week as I will also have a lot of Zeke. We went over how the Bills defense is extremely overrated so far, this season and still have struggled with opposing team's WR1. Julio has as high a ceiling as anybody in the NFL and I'm putting my money where my mouth is – Julio finds the end zone in week 4.
TIER 2: Golden Tate ($6,300 DK / $7,100 FD)- I went over how awesome Tate is in my Matthew Stafford analysis as well as my love for Kenny Golladay this week. Golladay is just too risky for me to recommend to you guys so let's stick with another elite target from this team in Golden Tate. Tate is a PPR machine considering the amount of targets/catches he receives as the underneath slot receiver for the Lions. Stafford loves to check down to Tate and Tate has the playmaking ability to pick up major yardage and carries a 21% touchdown equity over the past year for the Lions. In a week where the Vikings are ranked 30th DVOA against WR's not covered by Xavier Rhodes, I think we get a huge floor with a nice ceiling for Tate this week where he will go way overlooked because of his "tough" matchup with the Vikings.
Sammy Watkins ($5,900 DK / $7,200 FD) - WATKINS!!! ARE YOU KIDDING ME. I MISS THE WATKINS EXPLOSION BECAUSE THEY WERE NOT ON THE MAIN SLATE. I WAS SO TILTED WATCHING THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL LAST WEEK. I could not believe it. But that's DFS and I'm coming right back to the well with Watkins this week. We have to be careful here because Watkins is in the concussion protocol but I 100% believe he's fine and should be playing this week at 100% after an extended break. Dallas is mediocre against the pass ranking in the bottom half of the league in DVOA and is expected to play up in pace in this game where the implied total between these two teams is 47.5. The game script favors Watkins and the Rams pass offense here as they are +6 dogs and I expect Todd Gurley to be pretty ineffective. The stars seem to be aligned for Watkins again this week and barring any news on Watkins being limited I can see another ceiling week from the Rams star wide receiver.
Tier 3: Marqise Lee ($4,500 DK / $6,200 FD) - Not a lot of people are going to be playing Marqise Lee this week but he checks out as Blake Bortles #1 WR who carries a lot of upside at his price in this matchup. Since Allen Robinson went down Lee has seen 19 targets between two games (one of which was a blow-out where he saw under 75% of the WR snaps.) Now he gets a game that should remain close in which Bortles should continue to air the ball out. The Jaguars defense is elite so we have to be careful the game script doesn't turn too much in favor of Fournette and the run game but for the price and expected targets Lee is an ELITE GPP and even cash game option this week against the Jets. The only thing the Jets have done well this year is covering tight-ends so let the masses chase Marcedes Lewis points while we rake with Lee this week.
PERSONAL FAVORITE PLAY (PT/$): Marqise Lee
Top Tier: Rob Gronkowski ($6,600 DK / $8,500 FD) - GRONKKKK!! With the Patriots currently implied for 29 points, how are you not interested in Gronkowski. There aren't other players at this position with the type of upside Gronk has. I actually am quite fond of his Draftkings price while on Fanduel he is more on the border consider PT/$ value. Carolina has been extremely stingy against the TE so far this season but I think coming off a tough loss at home into Foxborough they are going to have their work cut out for them. Gronk should be low owned again this week and makes for a phenomenal tournament play.
Bottom Tier: Evan Engram ($3,000 DK/ $5,200 FD) - One thing we know is going to happen in this game. The Giants are going to lean heavily on the passing game to get a much-needed win. The playoff hopes for the Giants are low right now and if they lose this game they're basically out the window. I think these players know this and come out for a huge day against a banged-up linebacker core and secondary. Engram has looked great and we all know the dude is basically an over-sized receiver. He has the skill set to post a huge receiving game and has had good chemistry with Eli through the first three weeks of the season. Look for him to continue to get more involved as he learns this Giants offense. He has a MASSIVE upside for his price this week.
PERSONAL FAVORITE PLAY: Evan Engram
GAME THEORY ANGLE FOR THIS WEEK :
Now let's get into some strategy for Week 4. What a crazy first three weeks. We've missed on some big GPP plays but don't expect Case Keenum and Jacoby Brissett to post huge games like they did going forward. Things are going to stabilize for GPP and we're going to stick to the blueprint that's been working. If you've been using my article you've had massive success this NFL season and that's only going to continue as I spend 15+ hours per week on finding the best GPP plays and putting them all into this article for you. Along with my article make sure to be utilizing all the content/tools/articles/livestreams/lineups we provide at DFS Karma. Trust what we've done, trust what we're doing, and follow us to the money this week.
Another part of NFL DFS that a lot of players are slow to implement is game stacking. There is a MAJOR correlation between being in the top 1% of scoring with your lineup and implementing a game stack. I'll give away my favorite game stack of the week right here. Bortles/Fournette/Lee and then coming back with Powell. I'm hoping this stack comes in as low owned as I think it will.
I will be giving out more of my low-owned GPP's plays throughout the weekend between our Livestream tomorrow night and a periscope Q&A sometime either Saturday night or Sunday morning! Make sure to stay tuned and thanks for reading! I better see ALLLL the screenshots Monday morning with all of you RAKING in the cash! LET'S GOOOOO! #MONEYTEAM
WRITTEN BY: @ DF_ADVANTAGE - Follow me on Twitter :)
DISCLAIMER: This report has been prepared and issued by AcKarmaSports LLC for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. AcKarmaSports LLC is not responsible for any losses sustained. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department at AcKarmaSports LLC at the time of publication.