0 Bobby's Week 6 NFL GPP Breakdown FD/DK | DFS Karma

Bobby's Week 6 NFL GPP Breakdown FD/DK

  

 

*THIS ARTICLE IS DESIGNED SPECIFICALLY FOR GPP ENTRY CONTESTS ON DRAFTKINGS.  MY GOAL WHEN SHARING MY THOUGHTS/INFORMATION WITH YOU ALL IS THAT THESE PLAYERS COME IN UNDER 10-15% OWNED IN GPP’S.  TO FIND PLAYERS THIS LOW OWNED, WE ARE TAKING ON A “BUST RISK”.  THIS IS THE TYPE OF RISK AS A GPP PLAYER YOU NEED TO TAKE DOWN A TOURNAMENT. * 

  

  

  

QUARTERBACK : 

 
Tier 1:  Drew Brees ($7,200 DK / $8,600 FD)-  I always love to target players for my DFS lineups coming off a bye week.  We know they've had an extra week to prepare for the upcoming team and are fresh/less banged up then their opponent.  Brees and the Saints get to return to the Superdome for the first time since week 2 this week.  In Week's 3 and 4, the Saints put up 34 and 20 points against the Panthers and Dolphins respectively.  Both of these teams are considered legitimately #good defenses in the NFL as we move into week 6.  Now with a 50-point O/U and a 27.25 current implied team total I don’t expect Drew Brees to slide under the radar but I do believe he has that 300 yard – 3 touchdown upside we're looking for when we pay up for a "Tier 1" QB in GPP's.  Drew Brees is averaging 283.8 yds./gm so far and he's only played ½ of his games at the "Coors field of NFL DFS".  Back on his home turf (literally) where Brees has been historically better, we can roll out Brees confidently this week as the highest upside QB on the board. 

Stat Prediction: 320/3/1 

Tier 2:  Kirk Cousins ($6,800 DK, 7,800 FD) - Another quarterback coming fresh off a bye Kirk Cousins and this Redskins offense looks poised for a huge week.  What attracts me most to Cousins in this matchup is the pace at which the 49ers have allowed other teams to play at.  According to PFF, 49er's opponents lead the league in average snaps per game at 70.8.  With Josh Norman out on the defensive side of the ball for the Redskins, this game is looking like a shootout.  The 49ers have one of the most prominent funnel defenses in the NFL (ranking ninth in yds./carry against at 3.6) and with Rob Kelley out for the Redskins expect Kirk Cousins to shoulder most of the offensive workload.  He has the weapons at his disposal with Jordan Reed (supposedly 100% healthy), Chris Thompson (expected higher workload with Kelley out - receiving back = + for Cousins), and Crowder (who many spoke highly of during the offseason expected to be more involved) all of whom will be doing damage against this 49er's defense on Sunday.  Let's also not forget the narrative that Cousins is still on the franchise tag and is a motivated player as any in the NFL.  The stars seem to be aligned for Cousins this week as Vegas also has the Redskins implied for 28.75 points. Lock Cousins in with confidence as a high-upside GPP play who will be lower owned as many will play Watson in the same price range (makes Cousins a perfect GPP pivot). 

Stat Prediction: 315/2/0 

 
Tier 3Ben Roethlisberger ($5,200 DK7,400 FD) - What a terrible start to the season for Ben Roethlisberger. From a real-life perspective who knows if he will truly turn it around... From a fantasy perspective, however, I see a gold-mine in Big Ben this week.  While throwing 5 interceptions against the league's #1 DVOA pass defense what got lost in the rough was the fact that Roethlisberger through 55 pass attempts. 55!!!  With the Ravens tied for the division lead with the Steelers and another projected positive game script for the Steelers pass offense this week (+4 underdogs) look for Big Ben to be airing the ball out again, this week.  Let us not overlook the impact David DeCastro has had on this Steelers offensive line this year (which as we know is a huge factor in QB success).  DeCastro grades out as the best offensive guard in the league (according to PFF) and has not allowed a hit or sack on Big Ben yet this year. With the most potent offensive skill players in the league at his disposal (Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell), Ben has as much upside as any and I think he falls between the cracks this week at the cheapest price we've seen him in years (especially on DK).   

P.S. - Yes I know he has negative home/road splits. I'm not terribly concerned as 1.) This is a GPP play 2.) He's not automatically bad on the road in EVERY game. 

Stat Prediction: 280/4/2  (Bold call is Big Ben throws for 4 tuddies) 

 

PERSONAL FAVORITE PLAY (FP/$):  Ben Roethlisberger on DK – Kirk Cousins on FD 

  

  

RUNNING BACK : 

  

Tier 1Leonard Fournette ($8,000 DK, $8,600 FD)-  Leonard Fournette has been an absolute beast so far in his inaugural season in the NFL.  With this defense behind him, we should continue to see Fournette be worked extensively on the offensive side of the ball for the Jags (especially with the lack of trust the team has with Bortles throwing the ball).  Last week we saw just that as Bortles threw for only one pass the entire second half once the Jaguars secured a lead.  Fournette should continue to see 25-30 touches a week which is just straight ecstasy to us fantasy players.  As many of you know volume is king in NFL DFS and Fournette is right up there with the best of them.  The Rams have shown to be a relatively soft run defense so far, this year allowing 6.8 yards/carry a full .7 yards above the league average.  Fournette in prior weeks has also seen a fair amount of involvement in the passing game which is perfect to raise his floor/upside in .5/1 PPR sites like Fanduel and Draftkings.  The Rams are middle of the pack against receiving backs so there is not a lot to fear there either.  With the positive game script (-2.5 favorites) and an elite defense in his favor look for Fournette to continue his explosive season. 

Stat Prediction: Rushing- 90/2 Receiving- 2/30/0 
 

Tier 2: Lamar Miller ($5,400 DK / $6,800 FD)-  Is this Lamar Miller week? Everyone and their mother is going to be playing Deshaun Watson this week. We may see the highest % ownership on a QB on Watson then we will see on any other QB this entire season! This is a dream matchup against a Browns team that has not seemed to improve much from last year.  Their QB situation remains a mess with Kevin Hogan getting the start this week which is not a good sign for giving these Browns defensive players time to rest in between drives.  The Texans have an insane 28.5 implied team total just a few weeks after many figured their offense would be bottom 5 in the league (similar to last year).  With Watson opening things up for the run game we may finally see Miller get back to the elite back he was with the Dolphins.  The game script should heavily favor Miller this week and you know he is going to see his 3-5 targets which provide him with a nice floor/ceiling combo.  We are no longer concerned with the Texans RB committee plans as Miller saw 88% of the snaps last week.  Lock and load Miller as a high upside leverage playoff Watson and this Texans pass attack. 

Stat Prediction: Rushing - 85/1 Receiving - 4/40/1 

 
 
Tier 3: Alvin Kamara ($4,500 DK / $5,800 FD)-  Unfortunately, I think this play may gain some more popularity as the week goes on due to the over perceived additional workload projected for Kamara due to the departure of Adrian Peterson. People need to understand that AP did not have a role in this offense and saw at most 8-10 touches a game (usually less).  The Cardinals supposedly made this trade because of how they perceive Kamara and what they picture he can be for the team.  I drafted Kamara in my season-long league so I do have a slight bias towards rooting for his success but if there was a week for him to break out as an elite fantasy running back this would be the week before everyone else starts playing him (although I do expect him to carry ownership this week.  Kamara has been a PPR machine racking up 10 receptions last week (WOW) and now with the departure of AP look for him to add another 3-5 carries through the ground.  I project Kamara for at least 18 touches this week and if the dice rolls in his favor we could see even more.  Kamara is too cheap to be passed up and is an ELITE GPP play in Week 6. 

Stat Prediction: Rushing- 10/60/1 Receiving- 8/80/0 

 

  

PERSONAL FAVORITE PLAY (PT/$):  Alvin Kamara 

  

  

WIDE RECEIVER: 

  

Tier 1Antonio Brown ($9,300 DK / $9,200 FD-  Now I'm not going to lie to you guys. This price tag is scary and I'm not 100% comfortable paying up for him but this spot is actually awesome for Brown and no one is going to be on him 1.) Price 2.) Perceived tough matchup.  The price discount on Roethlisberger makes this two-player stack a little bit more doable on a site like Draftkings where we are crunched for salary. If you go to our site under the "NFL Nerd Stats" tab and take a look at the WR/CB matchup chart you will find that this matchup for Antonio Brown grades out as an A+ matchup.  Brown is the closest thing to matchup-proof so given an opportunity like this one we know Brown is going to capitalize.  I don't think Brown will see the whopping 19 targets he got last week but he is a lock for double digits, especially in a game Vegas projects the Steelers to be trailing.  The Chief's average yards given up to WR's per attempt is .6 yards above the league average at 8.1.  Brown's price will keep him low-owned this week and I'm all for risking a couple hundred $'s in salary for the 30+ point upside Brown brings to the table this week at under 10% owned. 

Stat Prediction: 11/120/2 

  

TIER 2Pierre Garcon ($6,300 DK / $6,800 FD)- Pierre Garcon has been an absolute monster so far this season and I think his potential is higher than what he has performed at so far.  Garcon has not dropped a pass on his 28 catchable targets this season in addition to averaging 2.05 yards per route run (via PFF).  Garcon has been a complete star this year in Shanahan's offense and should only see that continue this week against a Redskins secondary without Josh Norman.  While Hoyer is targeting Garcon this season he has posted a 91 QB rating compared to a 61.5 rating when targeting any other 49ers receiver.  Look for Garcon to continue to improve on a potential career year this week in a matchup that will favor the 49ers passing game (+11 dogs).  

Stat Prediction: 10/120/1 

 

Adam Thielen ($6,000 DK / $6,500 FD) - Thielen is going to be extremely low owned this week I promise you that. He is the type of player that can win you a milli maker type tournament with the type of play he's brought to the Vikings team this year.  He has posted an extremely productive 2.05 yards/route run from the slot and 2.65 yards/route run when lining up on the outside.  With Diggs questionable to play this week and leaning on the side of inactive, I think we're going to see a HUGE week from Adam Thielen. Cook and Diggs, arguably the two best players on this team are down, and I don't think we're going to see Kyle Rudolph pop off for 100 yards.  This GB secondary is broken and one of the worst in the NFL (currently ranked #26th DVOA against WR1's which Thielen will be this week).  With the positive game script in the favor of the Vikings pass attack (+3 dogs), home field advantage, and a 21.75 implied team total on the rise I love Thielen as a high upside, low owned, GPP play in Week 6 (he's going to find the end zone this week). 

Stat Prediction: 8/115/1 

 

  

Tier 3: Jamison Crowder ($4,000 DK / $5,400 FD) - Crowder is a player that came into the 2017 NFL season with plenty of hype surrounding him.  The Redskins and fans had huge expectations for the wideout that have just not panned out the way they were supposed to.  The Redskins have come out and said this past week that they need to get Crowder more involved.  Take that with a grain of salt as things always don't pan out the way they are intended to, but it's an extremely encouraging sign for his production coming into week 6.  In my Kirk Cousins analysis, I broke down why I am so high on the passing attack for the Redskins this week and Crowder may just be my favorite piece to pair with Cousins.  Jordan Reed has plenty of upside but the 49ers actually are #1 in the league against the tight end per DVOA.  Crowder is an elite matchup in the slot this week against terribly rated K'waun Williams.  He's let fantasy owners down so far this season but if he's going to breakout this year I believe this is the game he does. 

Stat Prediction: 6/80/1 

 
 

   

PERSONAL FAVORITE PLAY (PT/$):  Jamison Crowder 

  

TIGHT END: 

  

Top Tier: Rob Gronkowski ($6,800 DK / $8,000 FD) - This is a bit obvious but you'll be surprised when Gronk isn't as popular as you think come Sunday.  He comes with a price but I think it's one you need to pay for this week as we have limited TE options. Gronk is supposedly fully healthy and ready to go. The matchup is not amazing for him as the NYJ are #2 in DVOA against the TE but Gronkowski is as matchup-proof as they get. Look for him to do some damage this Sunday. Not to mention the narrative that this game feels huge for the Patriots considering as they are in a 3-way tie for the division league (tied with Jets and Bills). 

Stat Prediction: 8/80/1 

 
Bottom TierCameron Brate ($3,900 DK/ $5,900 FD) -
  Brate is ridiculously cheap on Draftkings considering the role he has played in this Tampa Bay offense.  After posting 15/148/2 in his last two games you think we'd see some respect for his price. With Mike Evans shadowed by Patrick Peterson, I think we see Winston continue to check it down to his reliable TE.  If we're getting 9 targets this week for Brate at $3,900 on DK I don't know how you fade him.  He's got some upside considering the type of RZ target he's been (3 TD's in past three games) and is playable in all formats this Sunday. 
 

Stat Prediction: 5/50/1 

  

PERSONAL FAVORITE PLAY:  Rob Gronkowski 

  

  

GAME THEORY ANGLE FOR THIS WEEK: 

  

Now let's get into some strategy for Week 6 

If you've been using my article you've had massive success this NFL season and that's only going to continue as I spend 15+ hours per week on finding the best GPP plays and putting them all into this article for you.  Along with my article make sure to be utilizing all the content/tools/articles/livestreams/lineups we provide at DFS Karma.  Trust what we've done, trust what we're doing, and follow us to the money this week.   

Another part of NFL DFS that a lot of players are slow to implement is game stacking.  There is a MAJOR correlation between being in the top 1% of scoring with your lineup and implementing a game stack.  I'll give away my favorite game stack of the week right here.  Cousins/Crowder/Reed and then coming back with Garcon. With so many high point totals on the board this week I think the Redskins will be the game that falls under the radar the most.  They have just as much upside as any, and without Josh Norman anchoring down this defense I won't be surprised to see a shootout between these two teams. 

I will be giving out more of my low-owned GPP's plays throughout the weekend between our Livestream tomorrow night and a periscope Q&A sometime either Saturday night or Sunday morning! Make sure to stay tuned and thanks for reading! I better see ALLLL the screenshots Monday morning with all of you RAKING in the cash! LET'S GOOOOO! #MONEYTEAM  

  

  

WRITTEN BY: @ DF_ADVANTAGE - Follow me on Twitter :) 

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

DISCLAIMER: This report has been prepared and issued by AcKarmaSports LLC for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. AcKarmaSports LLC is not responsible for any losses sustained. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department at AcKarmaSports LLC at the time of publication. 

 

 

 

 

 

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