0 Bobby's Week 7 NFL GPP Breakdown FD/DK | DFS Karma

Bobby's Week 7 NFL GPP Breakdown FD/DK

  

 

*THIS ARTICLE IS DESIGNED SPECIFICALLY FOR GPP ENTRY CONTESTS ON DRAFTKINGS.  MY GOAL WHEN SHARING MY THOUGHTS/INFORMATION WITH YOU ALL IS THAT THESE PLAYERS COME IN UNDER 10-15% OWNED IN GPP’S.  TO FIND PLAYERS THIS LOW OWNED, WE ARE TAKING ON A “BUST RISK”.  THIS IS THE TYPE OF RISK AS A GPP PLAYER YOU NEED TO TAKE DOWN A TOURNAMENT. * 

  

  

  

QUARTERBACK : 

 
Tier 1:  Ben Roethlisberger ($6,200 DK / $7,200 FD)-  IMO Big Ben is a much better play on Draftkings this week but coming off a huge win for the Steelers against the undefeated* Chiefs I figured we'd see a rise in Ben's price.  We all know that it is a thing to play Big Ben at home and I'm not going to stop this trend while getting him at such a cheap price.  Roethlisberger has two of the best skill players in the league at their respective positions, as well as a great offensive line.  Targeting offensive weapons in rivalry games does make me nervous as they tend to be more low scoring but that is exactly why I'll be targeting him.  People know this and it will suppress his ownership to a level I will be able to have a huge edge by being overweight. 

Stat Prediction: 280/3/1 

Tier 2:  Jared Goff ($5,800 DK, 7,300 FD) - GOFFFF. Not hopping off the Goff train and although at this point you're hopping on the bandwagon just do it. Goff is a legit NFL talent who fits perfectly into McVay's system.  Don't be scared off by this matchup with the Cardinals who have actually been bottom half of the league in DVOA covering all the skill positions in the passing game (WR1/2,RB,TE).  This is shaping up to be a pretty messy slate without a lot of huge totals on the board and the Rams are one of only 5 teams with implied totals above 24 points.  Whitworth continues to do his thing at LT and leave Goff all the time he wants in the pocket to make his throws.  I see Goff going overlooked and under owned once again this week and I'm going to want him on my teams. 

Stat Prediction: 275/2/0 

 
Tier 3: Tyrod Taylor ($5,200 DK7,000 FD) - I hate this because of how chalky he's going to be but I just love this play from a DFS perspective.  Taylor usually isn't the type of guy we're going to see throw 30+ times a week but in a matchup with a funnel defense that has been getting torched by WR's we should see the Bills look to incooprorate the pass game into their offense a bit more.  Taylor is a perfect play for cash games this week (I think he's in play for both cash and GPP) as he also brings a nice floor with his ability to put the ball on the ground and pick up yards/TD's with his feet.  Taylor has all the skills this week and provides a dynamic DFS options with multiple ways to get you points. 

Stat Prediction: 240/2/1  Rushing: 4/55/1  

 

PERSONAL FAVORITE PLAY (FP/$):  Tyrod Taylor  

  

RUNNING BACK : 

  

Tier 1Le'Veon Bell ($9,100 DK, $9,700 FD)-  Another week where the ownership on Bell is going to be low before it skyrockets with Zeke's suspension.  Bell is in a decent matchup with the perfect game script as the Steeler's are at home and projected to be leading.  Bell has the highest upside of any RB on the slate and we're going to get him 10-15% less owned than Elliot this week.  Yes, you do have to pay a bit of a premium for him but when Bell goes for 30+ and Zeke hits 20 you're going to tell yourself "Wow if only I paid up $100 more on DK/$1000 more on Fan duel for those extra 10-15 points".  It's worth it now people. Pay up for him in your GPP's. 

Stat Prediction: Rushing- 120/1 Receiving- 4/60/1 
 

Tier 2: Jay Ajayi ($6,200 DK / $7,400 FD)-  Is this Jay Ajayi week? It very well may be.  Keep an eye on him as he obviously has some nagging injuries but Ajayi is one of the most dangerous/explosive backs in the NFL.  He is known to be a VIOLENT rusher that literally strikes fear in opposing defenses.  The game script is setting up perfectly for Ajayi here as the Dolphins are at home, favored, and against a weak D.  The Dolphins are surprisingly still competing for a playoff spot and do not trust Jay Cutler throwing the football. We're going to see something similar to the Jaguars where they hide Cutler by giving an enormous amount of carries to the RB.  Ajayi should see a huge workload this week and we know by now, volume = fantasy points. 

Stat Prediction: Rushing - 140/2 

 
 
Tier 3Alvin Kamara ($5,600 DK / $6,100 FD)-  It's been one week and everyone has seemingly hopped off the Kamara hype train. Not me, I think is a perfect spot to pound this backfield again as they are projected for 26 implied points in a game with weather concerns.  Bree's plays worse away from home which is a + for his RB's who should get more touches as they continue to gain their coaches trust with big performances.  Kamara has major PPR upside and while Ingram is a good play as well he will be much more popular/expensive than Kamara this week which makes him an amazing GPP play.   

Stat Prediction: Rushing- 10/80/1 Receiving- 6/80/0 

 

  

PERSONAL FAVORITE PLAY (PT/$):  Jay Ajayi 

  

  

WIDE RECEIVER: 

  

Tier 1AJ Green ($8,300 DK / $8,500 FD-  If you're going with the Steelers players I think you have to bring it back with AJ Green.  Green has completely annihilated this Steelers team in the past and I don't see anything that is going to stop him from doing more of the same.  The Bengals will be trailing in this game and will need to feed Green in order to make an impact on offense.  According to DVOA, the Steelers are most vulnerable from the WR1, which makes a perfect scenario for AJ Green to have a monster game even if his team doesn't score 25+ real life points.  Green will definitely go low owned this week and has as much upside as any in GPP's 

Stat Prediction: 11/140/1 

  

TIER 2:  Adam Thielen ($6,700 DK / $6,900 FD) - Thielen is going to be extremely low owned this week I promise you that. He is the type of player that can win you a milli maker type tournament with the type of play he's brought to the Vikings team this year.  He has posted an extremely productive 2.05 yards/route run from the slot and 2.65 yards/route run when lining up on the outside.  With Diggs questionable to play this week and leaning on the side of inactive I think we're going to see a HUGE week from Adam Thielen (again). Cook and Diggs, arguably the two best players on this team are down, and I don't think we're going to see Kyle Rudolph pop off for 100 yards. This Ravens D has been good but the number of targets Thielen will get this week is going to give him the upside to crush his salary at 5% owned in GPP's. I love Thielen as a high upside, low owned, GPP play in Week 7. 

Stat Prediction: 10/80/1 

 

  

Tier 3: Tyrell Williams ($4,000 DK / $6,400 FD) - Not sure why Fanduel has Williams priced so high but he is an elite GPP option this week and you get him for next to nothing on Fanduel. This Broncos team is scary to target but they have not been as good as you think.  If this game was in Denver I think I'd be less on Williams but playing at home with Keenan Allen out this is a blowup game for Williams at 2% owned.  All he needs is one play to be able to hit salary on DK and anything more than that is a bonus.  If I had to bet on anyone scoring a 50+ yard touchdown this week it's Tyrell Williams. 

Stat Prediction: 6/120/1 

 
 

   

PERSONAL FAVORITE PLAY (PT/$):  Tyrell Williams 

  

TIGHT END: 

  

Top Play: Jimmy Graham ($4,900 DK / $5,800 FD) - How do you not love Jimmy Graham this week.  The Giants have been getting torched by TE's season after season and Graham, although his Seattle career has not worked out the way he would like, is one of the most talented TE's in the NFL with as much upside as any given the opportunity.  If I had to bet on any TE getting into the endzone this week I'd go all-in on Jimmy Graham.  The Giants just cannot cover TE's (20th ranked DOVA) and this is a huge blow-up spot for Graham. 

Stat Prediction: 8/80/1 

   

  

GAME THEORY ANGLE FOR THIS WEEK: 

  

Now let's get into some strategy for Week 7 

If you've been using my article you've had massive success this NFL season and that's only going to continue as I spend 15+ hours per week on finding the best GPP plays and putting them all into this article for you.  Along with my article make sure to be utilizing all the content/tools/articles/livestreams/lineups we provide at DFS Karma.  Trust what we've done, trust what we're doing, and follow us to the money this week.   

Another part of NFL DFS that a lot of players are slow to implement is game stacking.  There is a MAJOR correlation between being in the top 1% of scoring with your lineup and implementing a game stacks.  I'll give away my favorite game stack of the week right here.  Rivers/Williams/Henry and then coming back with Thomas. With Sanders out Thomas should be peppered with targets, albeit a tough matchup with Hayward/Chargers secondary.  This is going to be an extremely low owned game and in my opinion, has major potential to score over 48 total points this week.  Taking a stand on this one, Vegas is wrong, this game is going over. 

I will be giving out more of my low-owned GPP's plays throughout the weekend between our Livestream tomorrow night and a periscope Q&A sometime either Saturday night or Sunday morning! Make sure to stay tuned and thanks for reading! I better see ALLLL the screenshots Monday morning with all of you RAKING in the cash! LET'S GOOOOO! #MONEYTEAM  

  

  

WRITTEN BY: @ DF_ADVANTAGE - Follow me on Twitter :) 

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

DISCLAIMER: This report has been prepared and issued by AcKarmaSports LLC for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. AcKarmaSports LLC is not responsible for any losses sustained. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department at AcKarmaSports LLC at the time of publication. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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1 comment

Nelson

October 22, 2017

Does k. Allen playing change your williams play and/or game stack ?

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