*THIS ARTICLE IS DESIGNED SPECIFICALLY FOR GPP ENTRY CONTESTS ON DRAFTKINGS. MY GOAL WHEN SHARING MY THOUGHTS/INFORMATION WITH YOU ALL IS THAT THESE PLAYERS COME IN UNDER 10-15% OWNED IN GPP’S. TO FIND PLAYERS THIS LOW OWNED, WE ARE TAKING ON A “BUST RISK”. THIS IS THE TYPE OF RISK AS A GPP PLAYER YOU NEED TO TAKE DOWN A TOURNAMENT. *
Tier 1: Carson Wentz ($7,200 DK / $7,900 FD)- If you guys didn't know I am currently located in Wentzylvannia and the hype is real. Wentz looks like an elite QB who is posting elite numbers. On his intermediate passes Wentz ranks as the #1 QB in football in QBR @ (140.9), 4th overall in short passes (105.2), and 3rd in big time throw % competition (7.4%). Wentz has one of the best offensive lines in football which is crucial to his success as a QB, as his completion % and QBR drops when pressured. This shouldn't be an issue versus a weak pass-rush in this 49'ers offense. This San Fran defense is bottom 3 in the league in almost every statistical category and should get lit up by this high-powered Eagles offense come Sunday.
Stat Prediction: 330/2/0
Tier 2: Russell Wilson ($6,500 DK, 7,900 FD) - This is going to be an extremely interesting matchup for Russell Wilson. This Houston defense is tough but one that I think can be exploited by Wilson coming off a 330+ yard 3 TD performance against a tough Giants defense on the road. I think we see more of the same out of Wilson here who always seems to get better as the season goes on. Wilson, who has not provided a huge floor with his rushing this season, always has the ability to pop off for a long run or a rushing TD (which is 2 points more valuable than a passing TD in DFS). The biggest factor here is if the Seahawks O-Line can hold up and give Wilson an extra couple seconds in the pocket to do his damage.
Stat Prediction: 260/2/0 40/1
Tier 3: Andy Dalton ($5,200 DK, 7,600 FD) - This is a nuts spot for Andy Dalton. This Colts defense is the definition of a funnel offense and just got torched by Blake Bortles last week. And yes, I played Blake Bortles on my wildcat team (and won) in week 7. If Bortles can do it, so can Andy Dalton. Dalton has many more weapons at his disposal than Bortles and makes a strong case for being a better QB. Vegas implies the Bengals for 25.75 points which easily could go over. Dalton is so cheap on Draftkings he's almost a lock for me and extremely hard to pass up. I think he's a lock for 20 DK points.
Stat Prediction: 275/3/1
PERSONAL FAVORITE PLAY (FP/$): Andy Dalton
RUNNING BACK :
Tier 1: Le'Veon Bell ($9,400 FD)- This is a Fanduel only play as Draftkings took the late game off their main slate. Bell has the highest upside of any other player in the NFL and this could be a smash spot for him with a projected shootout in this Steelers/Lions game. This is my favorite game of the week to have pieces from and I'm going to be well over-exposed on FD to make up for the lack of action you can get on this game on Draftkings. Not much explanation needed for Bell, play him.
Stat Prediction: Rushing- 25/140/1 Receiving- 6/80/0
Tier 2: Christian McCaffrey ($6,200 DK / $6,300 FD)- I could list McCaffrey as a WR, as his role in this Panthers offense is nothing short of just that. He catches more passes than anyone on the team and still has that big play upside we saw at Stanford. Although McCaffrey is only averaging 2.2 YPC, his counterpart, Jonathan Stewart, is averaging 2.5 YPC. Maybe McCaffrey isn't really as bad as we think between the tackles, and this offensive line is just bad?! The Panthers are projected to be trailing in this game and I expect McCaffrey to be the focal point of this Carolina offense as Cam Newton cannot throw the ball farther than 10 yards without it getting intercepted. Look for McCaffrey to provide a extremely high floor with plenty of upside in PPR formats.
Stat Prediction: Rushing - 8/40/0 Receiving- 10/115/1
Tier 3: Joe Mixon ($4,700 DK / $5,900 FD)- I love all the pieces from this Bengals team this week so you know I'm going to love their young star running back Joe Mixon. Mixon hasn't had a huge year.... yet. He was a complete stud in college and is not well known yet in the NFL. I expect Mixon to see 20+ touches this week which he hasn't that often seen so far this season. This Colts front 7 is better than advertised so I do think there is some cause for concern, but volume is king in this matchup with the game script heavily favoring the Bengals running game (at home as well).
Stat Prediction: Rushing- 21/95/1 Receiving- 4/50/0
PERSONAL FAVORITE PLAY (PT/$): Joe Mixon
Tier 1: AJ Green ($8,600 DK / $8,500 FD) - Going back to the Bengals offense, AJ Green is going to be a complete monster in the first half of this game. The Bengals are going to feed him against a team that is bottom 10 in the league in FP to WR#1's. My only concern in this game is that the Bengals blow the Colts out of the water and don't move the ball through the air through the second half. This is not something I'm terribly concerned about as I actually expect the Colts to keep this game within two scores which should keep Green involved in the second half.
Stat Prediction: 10/120/2
TIER 2: Alshon Jeffery ($6,700 DK / $6,600 FD) - Alshon Jeffery is a top 10 receiver this year in aDOT and air yards but has not seen major production on the Eagles. I think this is the breakout week for Alshon on his newest team and I expect big things from him going forward. People have almost seemed to forget about him and what kind of player he is. I have not forgot about his incredible years on the Bears and will be loading up on him against a team that got torched for 40 points against the Cowboys last week. you generally want to attack the 49er's through the ground but the Eagles really don't have a prominent run game, which leads me to believe they will lean on Wentz and the receiving corps to do the damage this week. Alshon Jeffery scores two touchdowns this week. Book it.
Stat Prediction: 7/125/2
Tier 3: Robby Anderson ($4,200 DK / $5,800 FD) - Robby Anderson is a much better play on Draftkings where his price is so low but I do think he makes for an extremely low owned flier on Fanduel. Josh McCown looks amazing this year and Robby Anderson is the most talented WR on this team. No one ever wants to play Jets players because well, they're the Jets. But they're at home matched up with what has been one of the worst defenses this year in the Atlanta Falcons. Atlanta has been getting torched by WR#1's and we know that the Jets are going to need the passing game to click to keep up with the potent offense that is the Falcons. Look for Robby Anderson to be heavily involved this week at suppressed ownership because he plays for the Jets.
Stat Prediction: 6/85/1
PERSONAL FAVORITE PLAY (PT/$): Alson Jeffery
Top Play: Hunter Henry ($4,800 DK / $5,500 FD) - Not only is Hunter Henry the safest option at TE this week, I think he's got just as much upside as any other TE on the slate. New England has been getting torched through the air this season and we're seeing Hunter Henry being worked into the offensive more and more every week. After play 81% of the snaps last week we can only expect that number to rise into the upper 8)% range. Volume is king in NFL as I always preach and Henry will be peppered with targets this week as the Chargers attempt to keep up with the Patriots.
Stat Prediction: 6/60/1
GAME THEORY ANGLE FOR THIS WEEK:
Now let's get into some strategy for Week 7.
If you've been using my article you've had massive success this NFL season and that's only going to continue as I spend 15+ hours per week on finding the best GPP plays and putting them all into this article for you. Along with my article make sure to be utilizing all the content/tools/articles/livestreams/lineups we provide at DFS Karma. Trust what we've done, trust what we're doing, and follow us to the money this week.
Another part of NFL DFS that a lot of players are slow to implement is game stacking. There is a MAJOR correlation between being in the top 1% of scoring with your lineup and implementing a game stacks. I'll give away my favorite game stack of the week right here. Dalton/Green/Mixon and then coming back with T.Y. Hilton. I think the Bengals are going to pour it on in this one and I love all the pieces from that side of the ball (Green/Mixon/Kroft). Mixon is an elite play this week given his cheap price and how long the Bengals *should* be leading. If the Colts want to win this game they need to be airing it out and T.Y. Hilton is their best chance to keep this game close.
I will be giving out more of my low-owned GPP's plays throughout the weekend between our Livestream tomorrow night and a periscope Q&A sometime either Saturday night or Sunday morning! Make sure to stay tuned and thanks for reading! I better see ALLLL the screenshots Monday morning with all of you RAKING in the cash! LET'S GOOOOO! #MONEYTEAM
WRITTEN BY: @ DF_ADVANTAGE - Follow me on Twitter :)
DISCLAIMER: This report has been prepared and issued by AcKarmaSports LLC for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. AcKarmaSports LLC is not responsible for any losses sustained. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department at AcKarmaSports LLC at the time of publication.