0 [WEEK 10] Bold Player Predictions | DFS Karma

[WEEK 10] Bold Player Predictions

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Players listed in the sections below of what I have come to a final analysis after 30 hours of research throughout the week using our analytics along with some of the most premium sources of intel in the industry.  The below represent the players I will have THE MOST exposure too.  Keep in mind these are GPP plays.  Cash game plays are generally in the ‘chalk’ section.

 

Chalk options 

These are players that are going to be owned by a ton of players across the industry.  It is important to understand these numbers when crunching for your ‘game theory purposes.’

QB

RB

WR

TE

Marriota

David Johnson

Jeffrey

Gronk

Cutler

Melvin Gordon

Jordy

Gates

Rodgers

Zeek

Evans

Kelce

palmer

Bell

Brown

 

 

 

QUARTERBACK

 

Big Ben

I’m all in here.  Massive home / road splits.  Bounce back game.  Big Ben / AB calling out there teammates this week.  Vegas with the second highest total on the board.

Tom Brady

This is a no brainer for me.  Second highest vegas implied total, bellichick off the bye week and home game? Sign me up.  Let’s let the public get scared off by seeing Seattle as a ‘scary’ defense.  Truth is they’ve been getting gashed this season against the pass.  And Brady has throw on average of 47 times per game vs. Seattle over the last couple years.

Rodgers

his ADOT is the lowest of his career but with most on the Marriota side people are forgetting about Rodgers.  The problem is you have to pay up.  It’s a steep price on Fanduel especially.  Tag him up with Jordy in your stacks (perish cox is terrible at CB).   Don’t forget that the titans are the 3rd worst team in the NFL against the pass over the last 4 weeks. 

Marriota

His price is just too cheap on Draftkings especially.  Since I am expecting a shootout in this game (see above) I’m ok riding some chalk here.

Cam

superman finally escapes planet kryptonite this week.  Chiefs are giving up the second worst Rush yards per game to QB at 18.6.  Chiefs also play a lot of man defense meaning there should be running room for Cam.  I’m a bit worried that starting center Kahil is out for Carolina but I love Kelvin Benjamins matchup in this one. 

*Others in good spots – Siemian, Rivers, Palmer, Wentz, Ryan

*Fades -  Kaep, Bortles, Winston, Cousins

 

RUNNING BACKS

David Johnson

highest projected total since LT was with the chargers in 2008.  Enough Said.  Probably smart to fade on a couple lineups but…at your own risk.

Melvin Gordon

more chalk but is a nice pivot form DJ if you go that route.  Most people will pair Sproles with David Johnson (especially on DK) so he will come in at a much lower ownership. 

Ajayi

much lower owned, premier matchup and will catch passes especially in this matchup.  SD struggles against pass catching backs.  I’m going to have much more ownership on Ajayi than the field to give myself and edge. 

Sproles

will be super high owned on DK but its worth it as his price point.  Atl is 26th in DVOA against pass catching backs out of the back field.  He’s also seen 80% of the snaps last game. 

Freeman

As the week has gone on hes growing on me more and more.  Love his usage rate, total keeps climbing in Atlantas favor and Philly is 25th against pass catching backs.  Will be super low owned. 

Bell

hes just do for positive Touchdown equity regression. 

Zeek

I like zeek but I just see the game flow going Pittsburg way in this one.  As stated above I’m all in on Ben and the steelers and surprisingly zeek isn’t getting targeted much worries me in the pass game.  I’ll have a couple zeek shares but Pittsburg is tough at home historically against the run. 

 

SNEAKY PLAYS

Ingram

(secrets out: you can run all over Denver).  I like booker in this same game as well.  Also, bold call of week –

lamar miller

goes for 100 and a TD. 

 

 

 

WIDE RECEIVER

Alshon Jeffrey

hes chalk but against Hargraves will have the premier matchup of the week.  He’s my lock in cash and GPP.

Antonio Brown

Why is he so cheap across the industry?  The dude has the best floor of anyone on any given week and his price hasn’t adjusted.  I’m all in.

Julian Edelman

lets go off the map here a bit.  Super low owned.  Seattle filters everything to the middle and they struggle against the slot WR.  I’m going to have a TON of exposure to Edelman especially on Draftkings

Jordy

I target Perish Cox every week (CB of titans) and love this setup.  High total, great game flow, Jordy can go bonkers here. 

Julio

I’ll take him at 5% or less especially when the corners of PHI are not as good as you think.  They are graded out extremely low across the board.  DVOA for eagles is a bit deceiving.   Julio can easily go for 150 and a score here and I will be overweight on the ownership vs the field for sure!!

Mike Evans

6’5 mike evans vs the 5’11 Hargraves / Porter combo.  Check please.

Kelvin Benjamin

Love this matchup (not scared of CB marcus peters as he wont shadow).  

Baldwin

positive game flow in his direction.  Patriots will take out Graham in this game and let Baldwin beat them.  Great play on Draftkings.

 

CHEAP OPTIONS 

Rodgers, Inman, JJ nelson, Coats, Jordan Matthews

 

TIGHT END

Gronk

I think he explodes in this game.  He’s due for a 130yd 2 td game.  Seattle hasn’t faced a tough TE all year.  Look for him to be heavily involved

Ertz

super high on eagles this week (Atlanta is just so bad against pass) but they have a rookie linebacker and safety in coverage.  Ertz should see 8-10 targets

Miller

He should eat in this one.  Bucs given up 3 tds to TE in last 4 games.

Kelce

great spot for him as long as he doesn’t get ejected.  Nice pricing too.

Lance Kendricks

ew, but is it?  He’s averaging 10 targets a game over the last 3, and Todd Bowls defense doesn’t focus on TE. 

 

 

The Mast Plan For This Weeks Lineups 

Week 10 Notes

Week 10 Notes

Week 10 Notes

Week 10 NotesWeek 10 Notes

 Week 10 Notes

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