0 [WEEK 11] Bold Player Predictions | DFS Karma

[WEEK 11] Bold Player Predictions

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Chalk options:  The players below that are going to be owned by a ton of players across the industry In cash and tournaments.  It is important to understand these numbers when crunching for your ‘game theory purposes.’  These Players are best used for Double Up and Heads-Up games. 

 

QB

RB

WR

TE

Luck

Laveon Bell

Brown

Bennett

Marriota

C.J. Prosice

Hilton

Cousins

Blount

Montcrief

Brady

Murray

OBJ

 

 

 

The Next Tier of players listed in the sections below of what I have come to a final analysis after 30 hours of research throughout the week using our analytics along with some of the most premium sources of Intel in the industry.  The below represent the players I will have THE MOST exposure too in my main tournament and big dollar GPP teams.  The below players will be in my lineups with the greatest exposure starting from the top and moving downward per position.  For example, Player ‘1’ = the most likely person to be in my main lineup!

 

QUARTERBACK

 

  1. Andrew Luck – This spot is the nuts of the week. It almost feels like getting dealt pocket Aces and you are feeling so good!!  Can your aces get cracked by someone who called your pre flop raise with 7-9 off-suit, you bet.  Look, this reminds me of a game back in week 6 between NO and Carolina.  The over/under was eerily 53 as well and that week the second highest spread was 48.  Sometimes we shouldn’t overthink things.  Tennessee is 31st in DVOA against the pass and have given up the most yards per game passing in the last 4 weeks.  
  2. Marcus Marriota – I said don’t overthink it right? Same game, huge over/under of 53.  Marriota is hotter than any qb in the NFL in the last 5 weeks now.  He’s thrown 13 tds in the last 5 weeks alone.  His floor is absurd.  Let’s game stack this game as many ways as we can on both sides
  3. Kirk Cousins – Kirk is quietly coming on strong as of late. At home, favorite and going against the 16th ranked DVOA defense against the pass but they are getting gashed over the last 4 weeks (see titans going bonkers last week).  He’s super cheap on draftkings especially
  4. Kaeperneck – I know this is tough to digest but the reality is Kaeperneck is showing signs of playing like an NFL QB. His passer rating is up for the 3rd week in a row.  NE is 26th against the pass as they have a true bend but don’t break defense.  They also run a solid amount of man coverage which will give Kaep time to run. 
  5. Brady – I love taking Brady when he is lower owned (regarding his zero touchdown performance on primetime tv that burned tons of DFS lineups). The problem is he’s quite expensive.  Everything in DFS is about opportunity cost but it’s rare that we get Tom at lower percentage with an implied vegas total of 32 (the most team point total on the slate). 
  6. Wilson – algorithms LOVE him this week. Keep in mind though that the eagles rank 1st  in DVOA against the pass. 

*Others   Eli, Tyrod, Bortles

*Fades -  Winston, Ben, Palmer, Dak

 

RUNNING BACKS

 

  1. LaVeon Bell – Bell already had a juicy matchup against the leagues 2nd worst run D but with the wind gusts expected to over 30 mph I’m fading ben and locking in Bell in 100% of all lineups.
  2. Spencer Ware – Shocking for my number 2 right? This is how you take down tournaments. Going to come in VERY low owned compared to most of the top dawgs in the RB category Ware has a dream matchup.   A simple stat to look at if you were lazy and didn’t spend 40 hours a week studying like I do is to look for a home favorite of -3.5 or greater and then check that running backs matchup.  Ware gets to go against the leagues 4th worst run d over the last 4 weeks and they are 3rd worst on the season on RB who catch passes (huge for DK).  Exepct an easy 3x return on salary for this one. 
  3. DeMarco Murray – now lets be clear, as this may sound contradicting.  But most of the way that these articles are written have pricing, strategy and game theories baked into them.  Demarco is a better play over Spencer Ware, however, he’s much more expensive.  He has a toe injury to monitor and he also has Derick Henry eating into his snap share.  You can easily make the case to put Murray in your main lineup if you can make the pricing work and I may have all three of these guys on my main dk lineup.
  4. Lesean McCoy – McCoy going against the leagues 24th ranked ranked defense spells fantasy goodness. McCoy will be the focal point Sunday and has huge upside as he has a HUGE depression in his price over the last 4 weeks.  Just like a smart stock broker, buy low and sell high. 
  5. Blount – Blount is in a dream matchup. Since he’s been with the Patriots and they have had games of being -13 favorites or greater, he averages 24 touches and 1.7 touchdowns a game.  This is a lock play in cash and a strong play for GPP but it’s ok to fade him in some tournies based on how belichek is always playing master magician in the past sometimes we just don’t know…
  6. J Procise – very chalky but almost a must play on draftkings. Coaches are referring to him as David Johnson 2.0

 

SneakyCrowell – coming straight from Hue Jackson this week “we need to get the Crow more involved.  He’s too talented to not get more touches.”  Also, Pitt getting gashed against the run this year (26th in DVOA against the run). 

 

Fades: BOLD CALL OF THE WEEK – fade ZEEK.  Baltimore is actually statistically have a better season stopping the run vs the ‘the dream defense’ of the Ravens in 2000. 

 

WIDE RECIEVERS

 

  1. Mike Evans – I’m so confident in this play I’m willing to call my shot: Mike Evans will have the most Fantasy points for a WR vs anyone in the field this week, ESPECIALLY if Marcus Peters misses this game.  It’s SO important to check breaking news Sunday am and this is one of them.  Evans lines up in a true WR ‘X’ Iso position which means he lines up on the right side of the field almost always.  Also,  if you click this link  you can see that we have professional grades of WR / CB matchups every week! You can use this for DFS or for your season long decisions.  Phillip Gaines is graded out as the 116th of 117th possible cornerbacks in the NFL.  This is a LOCK!
  2. J. Green – I was just as confident on Green as I was Evans very early in the week but I uncovered a few stats that are starting to scare me ‘a touch’ on Green. His game log against Buffalo isn’t great.  For example the last time they played he had 4 catches for 36 yards.  And Rex Ryan doubled teamed him that game and I am thinking that could again but I am not certain as the secondary has been very bad in buffalo.  They are ranked 22nd against the pass.
  3. Davante Adams – Stay away from Jordy (click link above for matchup chart flow). You have to avoid Josh Norman and Davante Adams has an INCREDIBLE matchup against Bashaud Breeland. 
  4. TY Hilton / Montcrief – Sticking with the trend to start this article, we are all in the on Indy / Tenn game that we need exposure everywhere.  Remember, Montcrief is cheaper and the better play, but TY will be lower owned…..and thus a better GPP play.  Also, remember my statement about CB of the titans Perish Cox each week – ATTACK HIM!!!!!   
  5. OBJ – Originally had him higher in my rankings but vegas dropped that spread by 4 points with this massive early winter storm headed its way. Strong winds could affect this game but this game theory overall has been tough for me to pin point, hence the lower rank for OBJ.  Chicago has struggled against the pass, meanwhile the Giants are running a very fast pace / tempo (super important in understanding game theory).  Tracey Porter shut down Mike evans last week, albeit he had help over top as it was a shadow coverage by design.  Chicago can scheme well so I can see them making Eli beat them with Shepard and Victor cruz…
  6. Jamison Crowder – Has an elite matchup in the slot and seeing Micah Hyde who is just getting abused lately. Hyde is a safety by trade and being forced to play in the slot.  He’s been torched over the last 4 weeks given up 265 yards and 3 touchdowns. 
  7. Allen Hurns – Detroit / Jax has shootout potential. Not many talking about this game but Allen Robinson will be shadowed by Darius Slay and we always look to target the slot CB of Detroit, Quandre Diggs.  Hurns will be VERY low owned in a premier matchup on a fast turf.  Should see 7-10 targets.   
  8. Baldwin – just seems to get in stride with Wilson in the second half of every season lately and keep in mind, the secondary for the eagles are VERY beatable.

 

FADE – Antonio Brown…yes the Antonio brown.  50 mph gusts are very real..

 

Cheap WR -  Eli Rodgers, Quitton Patton, Tyreek Hill, Pierre Garcon

 

TIGHT END

  1. Martellus Bennett – No Gronk, No Hogan, highest team implied total of the week, angry brady = receipe for success. Except 8-10 targets minimum this week. 
  2. Jordan Reed – I can promise you I am contemplating either fading Bennett (remember our talks on game theory) or putting Reed in the flex on draftkings with Bennett on my main team instead of 3 WR or 3 RB. He’s in a premier matchup this week.  The packers are the 5th worst team in given up fantasy points per game to TE. They are beat up within there linebackers and secondary and they are tough to run on.  If I were coach gruden, I let cousins open up the playbook and target Reed + Crowder all day long!
  3. Delanie Walker – He honestly should be the number 1 tight end but again when the price on draftkings of $3,700 for Bennett is that low we can’t ignore it. Walker is a solid pivot play though because he gets the colts who are worst in the league at covering the TE according to DVOA. 

 

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