Alex Smith/Kareem Hunt/Travis Kelce
The Kansas City Chiefs have been one of the best offenses in the NFL this season, averaging 371.8 total yards and 28.1 points per game. They get a matchup against the New York Giants, who have allowed at least 24 points in seven of their last eight games. Overall, New York is allowing 400.3 total yards and 26.4 points per game. They also rank 20th or worse in the NFL against quarterbacks, running backs, and tight ends this season. The Chiefs are -10.5 point favorites in a game set at 45 points, giving them the third highest implied team total on the slate at 27.8 points.
Alex Smith has been enjoying a breakout campaign for Kansas City this season. He has also been an elite quarterback on the road, averaging 290.4 passing yards and 2.8 passing touchdowns per road game. He is a player that can also add rushing yards to his totals, as well. Kareem Hunt has tailed off a bit recently, but he is another Kansas City player that has looked elite on the road. Through five road games, Hunt is averaging 144.6 total yards and 0.8 touchdowns per game. He was given most of the week off against the Cowboys, and he will likely be fresh in this plus matchup. Travis Kelce is the final part of the stack. He has not been better on the road this season, but he is averaging a 5.7/69.9/0.6 line on 7.6 targets per game. The Giants rank 32nd in the NFL against tight ends, allowing every starting tight end to score a touchdown this season. Kelce could be the best tight end the Giants have faced yet, making him a crucial part of this stack.
Derek Carr/Michael Crabtree/Amari Cooper
The Oakland Raiders have been a night and day offense at home and on the road. They have scored 14 touchdowns in four home games, as opposed to nine touchdowns in five road games. They have been an average passing offense on the season, but they get an elite matchup against the New England Patriots. New England is allowing a league-high 287 passing yards per game, while also allowing 17 passing touchdowns. They also rank 32nd against quarterbacks and 31st against wide receivers this season. The Raiders are sizable underdogs in this game, but they still have a respectable implied team total of 23.3 points.
Derek Carr has looked outstanding through three home games this season. In those games, he is averaging 272.7 passing yards and 2.3 passing touchdowns per game. These numbers are impressive because of the somewhat difficult matchups, as well. Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree are the two top options at receiver for the Raiders. They rank first and second in targets per game, combining to account for 42.6% of the team’s targets, 37% of receptions, 41.1% of receiving yards, and 64.3% of receiving touchdowns. Through four home games, the duo is combining for a 10.5/129.3/2.0 line on 15.8 targets per game. They are an elite way to get a piece of the Oakland passing attack.
Tom Brady/Brandin Cooks/Rob Gronkowski
The New England Patriots have one of the best passing attacks in the NFL, averaging a league-high 302 passing yards per game. They also rank third in the NFL with 19 passing touchdowns. They get a matchup against the Oakland Raiders, who are only allowing 245 passing yards per game, but they have allowed 14 passing touchdowns without recording an interception this season. Most importantly, they are allowing a league-high 71.2% completion percentage to go along with a 110.5 quarterback rating. The New England Patriots are -7 point favorites in a game set at 53.5 points, giving them the highest implied team total on the slate at 30.3 points.
Tom Brady is the focal point of the New England offense, enjoying another elite season. Through nine starts, he is averaging 311.9 passing yards and 2.1 passing touchdowns per game. He is a quarterback that is as consistent as they come with tremendous upside. Brandin Cooks and Rob Gronkowski are Brady’s two favorite options in the passing attack. They are first and second on the team in targets, combining to average 15.1 targets per game. They have also combined to account for 32.9% of the team’s receptions, 42.9% of receiving yards, and 42.1% of receiving touchdowns. Gronkowski has been a significantly better fantasy option on the road this season, while Cooks has found success regardless of where he has played. Brady will have no problems picking apart a weak Oakland passing defense, and Cooks and Gronkowski will get the majority of that production.
High Upside GPP Stack
Blaine Gabbert/Adrian Peterson/Larry Fitzgerald
This is one of the craziest stacks I have ever recommended. The Arizona Cardinals are far from an elite offense, but this is a matchup that is difficult to avoid. The Houston Texans are allowing 349.2 total yards and 26.2 points per game. They have allowed at least 33 points in five of their last seven games. The Cardinals only have an implied team total of 18.8 points, but their players will not need to score a ton because of their low price tags.
Arizona has been dealing with a plethora of injuries this season, resulting in Blaine Gabbert being named the starting quarterback this week. He has yet to attempt a pass this season, but he had a respectable 61.2% completion percentage, 8.2 yards per attempt, and 85.9 quarterback rating in preseason. He can be paired with Larry Fitzgerald, who will be Gabbert’s safety blanket this week. Fitzgerald has been a consistent option for Arizona, averaging a 7.1/75.2/0.3 line on 9.7 targets per game. This combination is also more enticing because Houston ranks 31st against the quarterback and 29th against wide receivers this season. The last part of the stack is Adrian Peterson. Through four games with the Cardinals, Peterson is averaging 85.8 rushing yards and 0.5 rushing touchdowns on 23.8 attempts per game. The Cardinals have no problems giving Peterson a workhorse load, and that will likely be the case this week. This is not a sexy stack, but it is cheap and comes with good upside because of the matchup.