0 [WEEK 12] Bold predictions | DFS Karma

[WEEK 12] Bold predictions

WR Snap Count and Snap Percent

 

Chalk options:  The players below that are going to be owned by a ton of players across the industry In cash and tournaments.  It is important to understand these numbers when crunching for your ‘game theory purposes.’  These Players are best used for Double Up and Heads-Up games. 

 

QB

RB

WR

TE

Carr

David Johnson

Cooper

olsen

Brees

Ajaji

baldwin

barnidge

Wilson

Rawlz

Edelman

Brady

Jennings

Beckham

 

 

 

The Next Tier of players listed in the sections below of what I have come to a final analysis after 30 hours of research throughout the week using our analytics along with some of the most premium sources of Intel in the industry.  The below represent the players I will have THE MOST exposure too in my main tournament and big dollar GPP teams.  The below players will be in my lineups with the greatest exposure starting from the top and moving downward per position.  For example, Player ‘1’ = the most likely person to be in my main lineup!

 

QUARTERBACK

 

  1. Derek Carr – This spot is the nuts of the week. Vegas spread is juicing higher as the days progress his week and is up to 51 points now.  He gets a young an inexperienced D who is ranked 19th in DVOA against the pass and gives up 271 yards per game.  Should be a shootout.
  2. Drew Brees – I said don’t overthink it right? We’ve talked about it all year when games are at home for Brees, we must look to attack these games.  New Orleans is known as the ‘Coors Lite of the NFL’ and the saints are implied to score 26.25 points (good for 2nd highest on the slate). 
  3. Russell Wilson – Wilson is back to his usual 2nd half surge as his price point on both Fanduel and Draftkigns has not caught up to his true market value. The seahawks are 6.5 favorites against the leagues 2nd worst pass d in the NFL over the last 4 weeks.  TB also is 15th in against DVOA against the pass and Wilson looks like he is healed as his is mobile and efficient again. 
  4. Tom Brady – Becoming a trend but Brady is just showing no signs of slowing down. The Jets are a funneling defense and allow several passes across the middle of the field.   We have to think that the game plan will be to pass since the Jets are ranked 3rd in the league against the rush and 29th against the pass…..
  5. Eli Manning – usually any qb who faces the brown makes it in this flow chart at some point. The browns are giving up 2.6 TDs through the air this year but ELI is just so volatile and also Jennings could rush a couple in….
  6. Cam – More of a Fanduel play but he’s only going to be owned at 2-4% and this is a math play here. He has the upside just has not been consistent.  I think Oakland is a lot worse on defense than people think….. 

*Sneaky Play:   Carson Palmer

*Fades -  Tyrod, Rivers, Ryan, Tannelhill

 

RUNNING BACKS

 

  1. David Johnson – Atlanta is having a great season, on offense. Defense has been there kryptonite.  They rank 26th against the run DVOA and are allowing the most pass yards to RB out of the backfield in the league.  They have a very old line-backing crew and I will say, this is an almost 100% auto lock play on Draftkings.  You can pivot on DJ on fanduel with less concern. 
  2. Jay Ajayi – I was SO high on him earlier in the week and then like a true stock analyst I didn’t want to buy just to buy. I investigated and came to a couple of interesting conclusions.  Miami Dolphis, LT Branden Albert and C Mike Pouncey didn’t practice all week are set to miss the game.  LG Laremy Tunsil is questionable but should play.  In my eyes I had to lower the floor expectation on Ajayi, naturally.  However, I dug further to uncover that Miami runs a true zone scheme and going against the statistically worst DVOA against the rush 49niners I will NOT lower my ceiling on him.   It will be hard to fit him and DJ into my main teams since they are so expensive but I will have plenty of exposure to him.  Ajaji also leads the NFL in the ‘most elusive RB’ according to PFF. 
  3. Demarco Murray – I would and should have him a little higher and he makes for an AMAZING pivot from David Johnson – this game just might be a little slow for me to attack in my big lineup, meaning – his floor is GREAT (solid play in cash games). With barkely at center things could get out of hand sooner than expected and Derick Henry could cut into his snap count.
  4. Melvin Gordon – Gordon burned a lot of people the week before the bye and this is my first ‘pivot’ play in my rankings.  When people look at the defense of Houston, that alone scares off a certain number of DFS players.  Truth is, Houston is atrocious against the run.  They are 24th in run DVOA meaning that they are very bad.  They are giving up 4.4 yards/carry.  Gordon is getting the rock more often than even Laveon bell and Zeek Elliot inside the 10.  His TD equity is just ridiculous high and add to the fact that he is getting 5-7 targets a game over the last 4 he is even more interesting on the PPR site of Draftkigns. 
  5. Lesean McCoy – The only way to win tournaments is taking advantages of understanding forecasted ownership percentages. For example, not only did LeSean McCoy burn about half of the DFS landscape last week when he came out of the game for being a p*ssy and ‘hurting his thumb’ only to come back this week doesn’t make sense.  But that’s ok we cant be gun shy.  Sometimes life presents challenges and failures with opportunities.  As I state all year, look for RB as a home favorite in particular a spread greater than -3.5 if possible.  Historically this stat alone has proven to have a positive EV for ‘xyz RB.’   Buffalo is favored by -7 against the jags!!!  Jacksonville is now third worst rush defense in the NFL per DVOA.  They have given up 117 yds/game over the last 4 on average and backup RB Mike Gillissie is out meaning McCoy is going to see a large market share of carries in this one….he might make my main lineup. 
  6. Jennings – Similar to my rant on Eli making the QB list because of the browns the same is true here for the RB slot. The browns are awful, surrending the second most yards this season on the ground, per carry and last 4 weeks (second only to the 49niners- i.e – see Ajaji)!!!!
  7. Ralws – its his backfield, with a team implied to score 26.5 points. The Bucs are 28th in DVOA at stopping pass catching backs and rawls should get at least 4 catches in this one (solid play for Draftkings).  They are 12th in the league at stopping the run overall
  8. Ware – I like him, just don’t love to be any higher. Broncos shockingly are the 3rd worst team in the NFL at stopping the run over the last 4 weeks and rank 23rd overall against the run according to football outsiders.  It’s just going to be slow paced game but coming in at 5% or less we need to have him in a few lineups. 

 

SNEAKYHYDE, STEWART, MILLER

 

FADE: GURLEY, FREEMAN, BLOUNT, HOWARD, MURRAY, BOOKER, HILL

 

WIDE RECIEVERS

 

  1. Doug Baldwin – Just a confident plug and play lock here. Very much more of a cash game play but also the way the Seahawks offense is rolling his ceiling is very high too.  Just a very safe play no matter what as the Bucs cant stop the pass. 
  2. Michael Crabtree – Bang! My first big pivot at WR comes early. Crabtree has looked bad the last 2 weeks including a game on national TV in which he had several drops.  Truth is, Crabtree is not a player who drops many balls and was very disappointed after the game.  The NFL is a game of emotions more than any sport.  Add to the fact that 35% of lineups will have Cooper and only 9% will have Crabtree AND Crabtree is over $1,000 cheaper on both sites!!! This guy WILL be on my main lineup. 
  3. Michael Thomas – Thomas gets the number 1 matchup of the week according to our matchup chart which is which you can find here and is VERY helpful.  The saints WILL score points at home as we described earlier…I also like Cooks.  
  4. Amari Cooper– Probably top option of the week but since he will be the most popular WR on the board at 35% I will fade him more than most.
  5. OBJ – Same as cooper, great matchup and he will be chalky. However, Joe Haden is better than people think still.  He wakes up for tough matchups with good WR and this should be a good showdown.  Buyer beware. 
  6. Larry Fitzgerald – Lot of people in the industry talking down on palmer and the cardinals but I secretly like the combo of Carson / DJ / Larry.  Fitz gets to go against a rooking slot cornerback who is ranked 87th of 117 total cb in the league.  He should eat here.    
  7. Allen Robinson – My sneakiest play of the day. He is averaging 12 targets a game over the last 4That’s A LOT.  And the bills secondary is highly overated.  They are ranked 24th against the pass and are THE WORST in the NFL against the opposing teams #1 WR. 
  8. Brandon Marshall / Julian Edelman – I put these guys in the same sentence for a reason. TAG THEM TOGHETER IN A BRADY lineup if you go that route!!!!!  Game theory people.  If you believe Brady will go off (which it looks like) don’t forget that NE defense is 27th worst against the pass AND Marshall torched them last outing for 7-120-2 Td’s……

 

FADE – Evans, Julio

 

Cheap WR -  Parker, Boyd, Lafell, Cam Meredith, Pryor, Shepard, Sneed, Britt

 

TIGHT END

  1. Greg Olsen – Shootout city, Oakland terrible against the TE for 2 years now.
  2. Gary Barnidge – Josh McCown gets his blankie back….and hes cheap
  3. Matellus Bennett – Taking advantage of him being super low owned after he burned everyone last week. He still ran 37 pass routes….
  4. Will Tye – It pains me as a browns fan to always attack them but they cant stop anyone at any positon.

 

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