0 Week 13 -Bold Calls, Game Theory, Rankings and Final Thoughts | DFS Karma

Week 13 -Bold Calls, Game Theory, Rankings and Final Thoughts

Chalk options: The players below that are going to be owned by a ton of players across the industry In cash and tournaments. It is important to understand these numbers when crunching for your ‘game theory purposes.’ These Players are best used for Double Up and Heads-Up games.

 

QB

RB

WR

TE

Brees

David Johnson

Julio

ebron

Stafford

Bell

AB

grahm

Wilson

riddick

TyFreak

kelce

Kaep

Hyde / howard

Saints / lions

 

 

 

The Next Tier of players listed in the sections below of what I have come to a final analysis after 30 hours of research throughout the week using our analytics along with some of the most premium sources of Intel in the industry. The below represent the players I will have THE MOST exposure to in my main tournament and big dollar GPP teams. The below players will be in my lineups with the greatest exposure starting from the top and moving downward per position. For example, Player ‘1’ = the most likely person to be in my main lineup!

 

QUARTERBACK

 

  1. Drew Brees – absolute LOCK for 3 bonus points on Draftkings when we can forecast to him to throw for 300 yards vs this very weak secondary. Vegas total is the highest on the slate at 53 at the ‘COORS FIELD OF THE NFL.’ He will be on one of my main Draftkings and fanduel Lineups. His home / road splits are just disgusting as we all know very well in the DFS industry and if you are new and learning just Google it. It’s MADDENING how well Brees plays at home.
  2. Colin Kaepernick – This was a VERY TOUGH call in my number 2 ranking. Remember – I am playing in some HUGE dollar tournaments and listing my plays in the same order as some of my big volume tournaments and I have to stick to my guns with Kaep. Although he is a better play on Fanduel, his price on Draftkings has the exact same bargain rating of 83% as does Drew Brees. Also, Chicago has lost their 2 starting linebackers and they are just beat up all around. Pace of play will be up as usual and the couple inches of snow will scare some people away.
  3. Matt Ryan – I really hope all 4 of my people reading this article made it to player number 3 in my QB section. Why you ask? Most people see the ‘Chiefs’ Defense and get scared away. As Lee Corso says: “Not so fast my friends!” The Chiefs are getting gashed against the pass over the last 4 weeks alone, giving up 303 yards through the air on average. They also are allowing the 2nd most teams to the opposition and Atlanta allows the most meaning this has shootout written all over.  
  4. Big Ben – Similar to Brees, he actually has even better home / road splits. This is a gigantic statement to swallow considering. I also have become lethal in projection ownership and I am forecasting ridiculous low ownership on Ben. I personally have some respect for the Giants 7th ranked DVOA pass D and the “Jackrabbit” AKA Janoris Jenkins is ready for the challenge to shadow Antonio Brown but I just a putting my dollar on Ben and his storied history at Heinz Field.
  5. Russell Wilson – Great bounce back spot, cheap, -7 home favorite, against the 19th ranked DVOA pass D. Also, Carolina is missing Luke Kuechly, Kurt Coleman (SS) and their leader in sacks Mario Addison. Wilson is slowly climbing up my board and may even make it onto one of my main Draftkings lineups.
  6. Tom Brady – I said 4 weeks ago I won’t take Brady off this list and he makes it as my final stud. Someone how the face of the NFL, Sir Thomas Brady, is coming in a projected ownership of ONLY 4% against a Rams defense that is struggling over the last 4 weeks and traveling across country again.

*Sneaky Play: Tyrod Taylor – lots of sharp money coming in on the bills…

*Fades - Cam, Cousins, Palmer, Brock,

 

RUNNING BACKS

 

  1. David Johnson – Washington is ranked dead last in rushing DVOA and is averaging 5.1 yards per carry given up. The one concerning thing, Washington is ranked 3rd in the league at covering pass-catching running backs when catching passes. I think DJ is a must play on Fanduel and Draftkings I can make the case for you to fade him.
  2. Theo Riddick – Obviously in real life Laveon Bell the better play but I made the decisive decision to go DJ over Bell and its hard to squeeze both in. Riddick overs savings on both sites and especially on Draftkings he is almost a must play if you pivot from the lions WR. A statistic that is very prediction is the DVOA for pass catching RB, and New Orleans is ranked dead last in the league. Also, there is data out there showing when the lions are implied to ‘come from behind’ in a high over/under game Riddick is highly involved.  
  3. Jordan Howard – Going against the worst rush defense in the league and you add in Chip Kellys fast paced offense we can project a nice uptick in plays for the Bears offense. The snow may scare some people away but wind is the only weather that can really change things (and Vegas agrees). I love Howard on Fanduel especially this week.
  4. LeSean McCoy –The gap between the New Orleans offense vs. the Lions Defense statistically isn’t the best matchup on paper this week. Surprise! It’s actually the Buffalo Rush Offense vs. the Rush Defense of the Oakland Raiders. McCoy has just been very consistent this season and clearly his thumb issue is scaring some people away. He is only projected to be owned at 15%
  5. LaVeon Bell – Not my favorite spot start for Bell this season but his usage and consistency in the pass game just makes his floor so high. Great cash play as always but the Giants rush D is actually ranked 7th in the league and they are great at covering backs out of the backfield.
  6. Spencer Ware – This is my favorite sneaky play of the week. I wanted to put him ahead of Bell but his floor is just not nearly the same. The best way to attack the falcons is their aging linebackers and week rush D. Ware could easily have 5-6 catches and this is MASSIVE for draftkings.
  7. Hyde – To be fair, as I write this, Hyde could easily be ranked a few spots ahead but just because I am so all in on Kaep once again it’s just a bad correlation play to have both in a lineup. However, Hyde might make second major team just to create some natural variance from my main Kaeperneck lineup.

 

SNEAKYMelvin Gordon, Doug Martin, Blount / Dion Lewis

 

FADE: Rawls, Murray, Ajaji, Ingram, sproles

 

WIDE RECIEVERS 

 

  1. Julio Jones – I wish I could insert a GIF of a volcano exploding....but this is the NUTS spot for a WR this week. I tell you guys (maybe only 2 readers left by this point) every week to go to our matchup chart on our website and look for the cornerback “Gaines.” Gaines has been targeted heavily by opposing offenses this year and is one of the worst graded out CB according to Pro Football Focus. Kyle Shannon is the Zen Master of targeting teams opposing weakness so Jones is in a great spot. (he will be chalk tho)
  2. Odell Beckham – Beckham skyrocketed up my rankings over the last few days. After doing a ton of research I initially was turned off early in the week for a few factors. Some include Eli’s terrible play as of late and others include the road splits for ODJ. However, Vegas and I both agree that the Pittsburg Offense is going to be scoring lots of points. This means that the already fast paced Giants are going to have to throw to come back and Beckham will be seeing a lot of Artie Burns who is one of the worst CB in the league.
  3. Marquess Wilson – Remember, the way this article is constructed is how much you will see certain players on my top rosters. At only 4k on Draftkings he just gives you so much savings and he gets to go against one of the worst pass defenses in the league. He should easily see 8-12 targets.  
  4. Willie Sneed– My game theory special of the week. I love Thomas and Cooks but as a premier DFS player, you have to take a stand at times and take advantage of a great matchup at a lower percentage owned in the highest vegas total of the night. He gets to go against Quandre Diggs in the slot, and Diggs has been torched this year.   44 targets have been thrown Diggs way and he has given up 40 catches. That’s insane.
  5. Antonio Brown - Usually one of my top WR to target (obviously) however the Giants secondary is very tough.  But don't get shy when making your Ben + Bell + Brown stack.  It is projected to be just too low owned so you need at least one share of this game in your overall equity.  
  6. Mike Evans – Evans targets just never go away and he will be a little less owned as compared to Jones. He matches up against Casey Hayward (who I LOVE as a CB) but I just think Evans is unstoppable with the amount of targets.
  7. Jamison Crowder – Similar to my Spencer Ware pick at RB, this is my sexiest and sneakiest pick of the slate. Tyrone Mathieu has been ruled out and Patrick Peterson will be shadowing Desean Jackson. Arizona struggles in the slot and Crowder has been so consistent.
  8. Brandin Cooks / Tate / Thomas – Anyone from this game is in play but the ball will thrown all over the place. Try to mix and match some of these guys into your ‘core chalk’ and get a unique lineup.  
  9. Doug Baldwin – has the best matchup on paper this week and should bounce back nicely against a funneling defense of Carolina.

 

Sneaky – DeAndre Hopkins, Malcom Mitchell, Larry Fitz

 

Cheap WR - TyReak Hill, Dorial-Green, Garcon

 

TIGHT END

  1. Eric Ebron – Chalk, but has a great matchup.
  2. Jimmy Graham – amazing matchup, somewhat sneaky….
  3. Travis Kelce – Falcons can’t stop any position, let alone TE.
  4. Vance McDonald – put play.

Defense

Denver, Patriots, Ravens, Jaguars (in that order)

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