Blake Bortles/Leonard Fournette/Dede Westbrook
The Jacksonville Jaguars are known as a defensive team, but they have also displayed elite offensive upside. They are currently averaging 349.1 total yards and 24.5 points per game this season. They get an elite matchup against the Indianapolis Colts, who are allowing 375.8 total yards and 27.3 points per game. They rank in the bottom-five in both of these categories. The Jaguars are currently -10 point favorites in a game set at only 40.5 points. Still, they have an implied team total of 25.3 points, which is more than respectable on this slate.
Blake Bortles has quietly been having a successful year in Jacksonville. He has performed well at home this season, averaging 248 passing yards and 1.6 passing touchdowns per game through five home starts. He is also averaging 24 rushing yards per game at home this season. Furthermore, Bortles has thrown at least one passing touchdown in every home game this season. The best wide receiver to pair with Bortles is Dede Westbrook, who recently returned from injury. In his first two games back, he is averaging a 4.5/38/0 line on eight targets per game. While the yards per reception are not elite, he was targeted 10 times in his last game for the Jaguars. He is clearly playing a big role in the offense, and if his preseason was an indication of his talent, he possesses much more upside than he has displayed in his first two games. The final part of the stack is Leonard Fournette, who is the focal point of the offense. On the season, he is averaging 20.8 carries and 2.4 receptions per game. He has turned those touches into 104.2 yards and 0.8 touchdowns per game. The Jaguars have no problems giving Fournette 25+ carries in games, making him a must start part of this stack.
Derek Carr/Seth Roberts/Cordarrelle Patterson
The Oakland Raiders have featured an average passing attack this season, as they rank 14th in passing yards per game and 13th in passing touchdowns. They get an elite matchup against the New York Giants, who rank fourth in passing yards allowed (258) and second in passing touchdowns allowed (22). The Giants will also be without Janoris Jenkins, who was recently played on I.R. The Raiders are also -9.5 point favorites in a game set at 42 points. They have an implied team total of 25.8 points, which is one of the highest on the slate.
Derek Carr has struggled at times this season, but he has looked great at home. Through five home starts, he is averaging 261.6 passing yards and 2.0 passing touchdowns per game. He has thrown at least two touchdowns in three of his last five home starts, as well. The Raiders wide receivers are a bit muddied this week, as Michael Crabtree will be suspended and the early report on Amari Cooper is that he is unlikely to play with an injury. That leaves Seth Roberts, Cordarrelle Patterson, and Johnny Holton to fill the void. While I believe all three have value if Cooper is out, Roberts and Patterson are the safest options. Roberts is a red zone target that saw nine targets only two weeks ago against the New England Patriots. He is the most familiar receiver with Carr, meaning he could see a few extra looks this week. Patterson is essentially a return man that is electric with the ball in his hands. He has four targets in three of his last four games, recording at least three catches in each of those games. He receptions are high percentage opportunities, such as screens, because Oakland wants to simply get the ball in his hands. This stack does come with some risk, but it is a matchup that is impossible to ignore at this point.
Tom Brady/Brandin Cooks/Rob Gronkowski
The New England Patriots feature one of the best passing offenses in the NFL on a yearly basis, and this season is no different. They are averaging 297 passing yards per game to go along with 26 passing touchdowns, which ranks second in the NFL. They get a matchup against the Buffalo Bills, who are allowing 241 passing yards per game, but have only allowed 10 passing touchdowns this season. The Patriots are a team that can score on any defense, though, and that should not be a problem this week. They are -8.5 point favorites in a game set at 48.5 points, giving them the highest implied team total on the slate at 28.5 points.
Tom Brady is technically questionable this week, but there is no real concern that he does not play. He has been enjoying an elite season, averaging 306.7 passing yards and 2.4 passing touchdowns per game. He has also been a slightly better quarterback on the road this season. Brandin Cooks has been one of Brady’s favorite targets this season, as he is averaging a 4.6/79/0.5 line on 7.4 targets per game. While that is not an elite number of targets per week, he is leading the Patriots team in targets this season.
High Upside GPP Stack
Geno Smith/Sterling Shepard/Evan Engram
I can go over the stats of how the New York Giants offense has struggled this season, but that does not necessarily matter this week. They have been dealing with plenty of injuries, but Sterling Shepard is expected to return to the lineup. New York also surprisingly benched Eli Manning for Geno Smith this week. I tend to think Smith is a better player than others, which will be outlined below. Vegas does not necessarily believe the Giants will be able to scor this week, as they have one of the lowest implied team totals on the slate at 16.3 points. They get an elite matchup against the Oakland Raiders, though, who are allowing 245 passing yards per game this season. They have also allowed 19 passing touchdowns, while recording only one interception in 360 pass attempts.
Geno Smith has not started a game since 2015, but in his last five games (four starts), Smith is averaging 253.2 passing yards and 1.6 passing touchdowns per game. He is also averaging 22 rush yards per game over that span. He may not be the long term answer for the Giants, but he only needs to be a short term answer for our fantasy lineups. Sterling Shepard practiced in full on Wednesday, and he is fully expected to play this week. In his last two healthy games, he is averaging an 8/106/0 line on 11 targets per game. He is one of the only healthy options the Giants have at receivers, and he will continue to be a big part of the offense. Evan Engram has been enjoying an elite option at tight end this season. He has been an even bigger part of the offense over the last five weeks, as well. Over that span, he is seeing an average of 8.8 targets per game. He has turned those targets into a 4.0/37.6/0.6 line. While his efficiency is fairly low, the Raiders rank 27th in the NBA against the tight end, meaning he could see increased efficiency in this matchup.