0 [Week 14] - Bold Calls, Game Theory, Rankings and Final Thoughts | DFS Karma

[Week 14] - Bold Calls, Game Theory, Rankings and Final Thoughts

WR Snap Count and Snap Percent

 

Chalk options: The players below that are going to be owned by a ton of players across the industry In cash and tournaments. It is important to understand these numbers when crunching for your ‘game theory purposes.’ These Players are best used for Double Up and Heads-Up games.

 

QB

RB

WR

TE

Winston

David Johnson

evans

Graham

Luck

Bell

AB

Green

Cousins

Tyrell W.

Kaep

Hilton

 

 

 

The Next Tier of players listed in the sections below of what I have come to a final analysis after 30 hours of research throughout the week using our analytics along with some of the most premium sources of Intel in the industry. The below represent the players I will have THE MOST exposure too in my main tournament and big dollar GPP teams. The below players will be in my lineups with the greatest exposure starting from the top and moving downward per position. For example, Player ‘1’ = the most likely person to be in my main lineup!

 

QUARTERBACK

 

  1. Kirk Cousins – I got to witness his first professional start in Cleveland a couple years ago and knew this guy was special that day. Kirk bet on himself this offseason and boy is he going to get paid. Philadelphia is just falling apart defensively as they have given up 299 yards passing per game over the last 4 games and they have 2 of the top 15 worst graded CB’s in the league according to Pro Football Focus. Kirk is showing easy 300 yards + 3 td upside every week and the best way to attack Jim Shwartz Defense is through the air.
  2. Colin Kaeperneck – As I said in my Contrarian stacks article this week, just like in the stock industry, be greedy when others are fearful. Colin Kaeperneck gets to go against the JETS, who laid an egg on Monday night football, traveling across the country on a short week and basically are tanking for draft picks. The weather will be much better this week as I think the snow really messed with Kapernecks small hands last week (yes hand size matters and you have to evaluate EVERY detail to dominate DFS). Given all these variable and the fact that Kaep is playing for a new contract and add in the fact his ceiling is as high as anyone at the QB spot, his price point makes it juicy enough for him to my 2nd most exposed QB (also ownership will be super low).
  3. Russell Wilson – Going against the 22nd ranked DVOA against the pass, and a secondary decimated by injuries, Green Bay’s only chance of slowing down the Seahawks is to run the no huddle at a slow paced (which does scare me a bit). When I evaluated to pace of play in this game, I noticed Rodgers is just slowing down his offense to the tune of the 25th slowest offense in the league. It’s by design, as they need to keep thier defense off the field as best as they can. This is the only thing that shunned me from having Wilson as my number 1 QB. I still LOVE the matchup (especially on Fanduel).  
  4. Jamies Winston – He’s chalk so I’ll keep this short….he’s in a GREAT spot against the leagues 26th ranked Defense. Potential shootout here as well.
  5. Andrew Luck – Another great spot Luck.   He gets a Houston secondary who people may think is tough but has struggled mightily over the last 4 weeks giving up an average of 2 TDS a game.
  6. Drew Brees – Super sneaky play of the day. Just like my statement on Kaeperneck, be greedy when others are fearful. Brees will FOR SURE BE IN ONE OF MY MAIN LINEUPS. Again hint, hint!!! The Bucs have been stout as of late but Brees is in a historic bounce back spot and will be tremendously low owned with the HIGHEST Over/Under on the vegas board for the week.
  7. Andy Dalton – one of the easier matchups of the week is Dalton against the browns porous pass D that has given up the most TD passes on the year. The reason he is ranked so low is because of weather concerns.

 

*Sneaky Play: Trevor Siemian, Palmer, Eli, Rivers

*Fades – Stafford, Wentz, Ryan,

 

RUNNING BACKS

 

  1. David Johnson / La’Veon Bell – Not even going to rank them much more this year its an auto lock in you cash games. I like DJ a touch over bell if you had to choose.
  2. Zeek Elliot – Giants have good corners and a nice pass rush but they aren’t really good at stopping the run. Add to the fact that Pro Football Focus’s 3rd best rush stopping Defensive End is Jason-Pierre Paul, who will be out, this is setting up for a juicy spot for Zeek. This game has serious shootout potential and especially for you smart DFS players ‘who game stack’ this will be a great game to target.
  3. LeSean McCoy – Similar trend this week of “be greedy when others are fearful” goes with McCoy. People are SO SCARED because of the coach rhetoric that came out this week. Rex Ryan said, ‘Gillisie will continue to get goal line work.’ First off that’s fine but guess who’s in the majority of all red-zone plays period over the last 4 weeks, it’s still McCoy and it’s not close. Pittsburg is 20th worst in the league on Pass Catching backs out of the backfield. McCoy is white out since week 10 and is single handily carrying this team. He’s going to come in at only 12% owned!!
  4. Jeremy Hill – The browns are 32nd in the league against the run and the weather in this game could provide a very favorable script for Hill. I’m not that worried about Hill’s performance last week, just take a look at his game log and what he did against the browns earlier in the year.  
  5. Demarco Murray –Don’t be scared of looking at the ‘Denver’ matchup as being scary. They are actually 28th against the run this year but they have held opposing teams RB to 3.3 yards per carry over the last 3 weeks which is worrying me a bit. Overall the Titans run 3rd most in the league and you can’t throw against the broncos so I do still like Murray a lot.
  6. DeVonta Freeman – With news on Julio growing more worrisome by the day, Freeman is skyrocketing up my rankings. I can GUARANTEE you that he will be on one of my main teams (hint hint)! The rams are actually not that good against the run and with Julio out or limited, Freeman will become much more active.  
  7. Todd Gurely – I have been targeting Atlanta like crazy the last 6 weeks. Last week I had Ware as my number 3 play. Fact is, the falcons are getting gashed up the middle and there outside linebackers are so old they can’t stop anyone catching balls out of the backfield. The only reason Gurely isn’t ranked higher is because of how bad he has been playing all year. However, he will be on one of my lineups as he is so cheap.
  8. Matt Forte - EVERY SINGLE WEEK, a top flighted RB who is going against the 49niners has won me a TON of money.  I won't be stopping this week but I am somewhat cautious....The jets seem like they are tanking (this is a real thing) and with Bryce Petty at QB I don't expect as many redzone opportunities...

 

SNEAKYRawlz, Gore, Riddick, Melvin Gordon

 

FADE: Ajaji, Booker, Ingram, Kelley,

 

WIDE RECIEVERS

 

  1. Mike Evans – Per Pro Football Focus Mike Evans will be matched up with Delvin Breaux. If you visit https://ackarmasports.com/blogs/nfl-nerd-stats/week-14-wr-vs-cb-analysis you will get a better understanding of our easy to ready WR vs. CB matchup chart that helps in your season long or DFS decision making. Evans has a 4-inch advantage, getting a ridiculous market share of targets per game (good for most in the NFL), in the highest over/under on the slate…..yes please! He WILL be in my main lineups.
  2. Y. Hilton – Hilton has historic plus / minus home splits. He just plays so much better on turf and the Texans look intimidating on paper have given up multiple TD passes in 4 straight games ever since Jonathan Joseph went down. Hilton has a major advantage in the slot this week going against one of the worst CB graded out in the league, Charles James. Major implied vegas total on the colts this week so look for Hilton to continue to roll.
  3. Doug Baldwin – Baldwin has been consistently making my top 5 WR over the last few weeks in this article and for good reason. He leads all WR’s in his grades this season and has caught a ridiculous 18 of his last 20 balls through his way. This week, he gets an even BETTER matchup going against Micah Hyde in the slot, whom which I have been consistently targeting as well over the last few weeks. Tagging him with Wilson will be popular but don’t be afraid to add Kearse / graham to that stack as well.
  4. Desean Jackson – Finally, one of my favorite players in the history of the NFL makes my article. Yea, that’s just a non-fantasy related personal biased opinion but here are the facts: Narrative streets are real, especially for Desean. He tends to thrive in these situations. Rumors are swirling that he’s coming back to Philadelphia next year. He also just kills Philly every time he plays them. And, for all the reasons why Kirk cousins came in as my number 1 QB, he gets to go against Leodis McKelvin and Nolan Carroll who are the worst tandem of CB in the NFL. The eagles also are giving up 300 yards in passing the last 4 weeks.
  5. Antonio Brown – He still will get his 8 catches, 90 yards and a score. He’s similar to DJ and Bell….plug and play  
  6. Ted Ginn– Casey Heyward will be shutting down Kelvin Benjamin this week. Cam will be playing from behind as usual and if you check our matchup chart at ackarmasports.com under NFL NERD STATS, Ginn gets a juicy matchup against Craig Mager. Ginn is a boom or bust player, similar to Desean, but he’s been very consistent over the last 4 weeks with 4 touchdowns. Cam will be taking some shots.
  7. Tyrell Williams – I expect a shootout in Carolina and Tyrell the Gazelle has just been very consistent all season. He is clearly the number one option for Rivers and Carolina has no DB to keep up with the Gazelle.
  8. Emmanual Sanders + Demaryius Thomas – Both guys will be super low owned and in a GREAT SPOT. I target Perish Cox each week in this article as he is statically the worst CB in the league per PFF, however, the Titans finally realized that themselves and literally cut him this week. So, the guy behind him?....Antwon blake – who literally gave up 1,000 yards last year himself.  

 

Sneaky – Sammy Watkins, Pryor

 

 

TIGHT END

  1. Jimmy Graham – Chalk, but has a great matchup.
  2. Tyler Eifert – Browns can’t stop the TE slot and is Daltons go to at the moment
  3. Cameron Brate – shootout game and is becoming a favorite of Winton. It literally is only Brate and Evans who catch balls from Wilson.
  4. Zach Ertz – AMAZING spot. Washington can’t stop the TE and should be good game flow for him.
  5. J. Fiedoriciz – Colts ranked 31st against TE in DVOA
  6. Jason Witten – Witten gets in the box this week with a score. Super low owned. The weakness of this Giants tough secondary lies in the TE slot

         Fade - L. Green

 Defense – Minnesota, Cincinnati, Jaguars

 About the Author: Anthony Carson, @acarson777 on twitter and @acarson79 on Instagram, is the CEO of AC Karma Sports and one of most respected DFS players in the industry. Anthony specializes in MLB and NFL and comes from a math background that helps him excel in his analytical projections and an advocate in understanding ownership percentages in all DFS sports

 

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1 comment

Shims

December 10, 2016

No love for Taylor Gabriel with Julio looking iffy?

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