0 [Week 15] - Bold Calls, Game Theory, Rankings and Final Thoughts | DFS Karma

[Week 15] - Bold Calls, Game Theory, Rankings and Final Thoughts


Chalk options: The players below that are going to be owned by a ton of players across the industry In cash and tournaments. It is important to understand these numbers when crunching for your ‘game theory purposes.’ These Players are best used for Double Up and Heads-Up games.

 

QB

RB

WR

TE

Matt Ryan

David Johnson

J.J. Nelson

Kelce

Rodgers

Bell

Beckham

Greshmam

McCoy

Gabriel

Gates

Farrow

 

 

 

The Next Tier of players listed in the sections below of what I have come to a final analysis after 30 hours of research throughout the week using our analytics along with some of the most premium sources of Intel in the industry. The below represent the players I will have THE MOST exposure too in my main tournament and big dollar GPP teams. The below players will be in my lineups with the greatest exposure starting from the top and moving downward per position. For example, Player ‘1’ = the most likely person to be in my main lineup!

 

QUARTERBACK

 

  1. Phillip Rivers – Loved him since Monday and usually it’s tough to be high on one guy and hold strong all week on it but there are so many factors going into this one. He threw for 359 yards and 4 TD’s in their first matchup. Oakland is ranked 21st in DVOA against the pass and has given up 246 yards on average through the air in the last 4 weeks. Also, this could be the second last home game EVER in San Diego along with Antonio Gates being just 2 TD’s away from the all-time record.
  2. Tyrod Taylor –Remember, I bake pricing of DraftKings into my rankings and at just $5,700 his price is too juicy to pass up on, especially for your cash games. Before I bash my hometown browns lets understand a very important stat here – “TyGod” has hit value on Draftkings in 12 of 14 games this year for cash games. That is INSANE!   His rushing ability really elevates his play and the Bills do have a 27 point implied total. And it’s the browns…
  3. Joe Flacco – Just like I was super high on Cousins + Desean last week the same rings true here for Flacco and company when targeting the Eagles and their pathetic secondary. Nolan Carroll and Leodis McKelvin are some of the worst graded CB according to PFF ( also see our easy to read matchup chart here ).
  4. Colin Kaeperneck – As part of my motto from last weeks premium article, ‘Be greedy when others are fearful.’ Kaeperneck will come in at extremely low ownership for a number of factors. I initially had him as my #2 QB early in the week but slowly have dropped him a touch just because I can’t quite figure out of Chip Kelly and the Niners have quit. This is a real thing. You better believe coaches and front offices are very away of the draft board late in the year if their respective team is well out of the playoff race. The Falcons have extremely slow running backs and play a ton of man coverage, which should give Kaep a floor of 55-65 rushing yards. Atlanta is also ranked 23rd against the pass and are 9th worst against the pass in the last 4 games. Atlanta should get up by 14-17 points and then Chip Kelly will start letting them run the spread since they “can’t win by that point.” I promise that Kaep will be in one of my main lineups.
  5. Matt Ryan – An obvious play against the lowly Niners of course but Ryan dips all the way down to 5th on my list. He historically has a very negative points per dollar return when a home favorite of 6 or more in the last 2 years. Also, San Fran is just HISTORICALLY bad against the run that even if Ryan airs the ball out (without Julio…) Tevin Coleman and DeVonta Freeman can easily punch the ball in which would hurt Ryans upside. Ryan is simply priced too high on Draftkings.
  6. Carson Palmer / Drew Brees – With all the cold games going on across the country you can clearly see I am playing it safe and attacking domes and warm games….no secret about that one. Both these QB’s are GPP plays only but the more I analyze this game I see so many injuries on both sides of the ball that is screaming shootout. Vegas likes this game as well with a 50 O/U total and how many times in our DFS career will we ever get Brees in a dome at 2%? Also, Playing Palmer + DJ + Fitzgerald is a nice stack.

 

*Sneaky Play: Trevor Siemian, Carson Wentz, Alex Smith, Bradford

*Fades – Stafford, Rodgers, Luck, Dak, Dalton, Ben, Brady

 

RUNNING BACKS

 

  1. David Johnson / La’Veon Bell – Not even going to rank them much more this year its an auto lock in you cash games. I like DJ a touch over bell if you had to choose.
  2. Lesean McCoy – Browns are ranked 32nd in the league against the run and believe me for all you people who watch RedZone, I re-watch games and the Browns are literally that bad against the run. It is the nuts spot this week for a RB not named Bell / DJ. I am not scared of Gillislee at all stealing carries at the goal line.
  3. DeVonta Freeman – I target San Fran each week as they have some of one of the most historically bad defenses against the run in the history of the NFL. I am not biting on putting Coleman ahead of Freeman. Sure Coleman scored last week, twice, but it wasn’t the best play. It’s like poker, you have to keep calling players all in pre-flop with Aces and if you get cracked by Jacks it is what it is. You were in position to win the hand but that’s part of variance. I think the right side of variance falls in our favor this week with Freeman.
  4. Kenneth Farrow – Very Chalky but I like him over Dixon as I analyzed the low tier backs more in depth today alone. He was a great college player and playing in a high vegas total game, in good weather and is not the feature back. A way better play on DraftKings than Fanduel.
  5. Carlos Hyde –I would love for someone to explain to me as to how a running back has averaged 6.2 yards per carry over the last 4 weeks and had 200 yards last week alone, now going against the 28th worst rush D in the league, is only going to be owned by a projected 9 percent!! He only got 17 carries last week too! Again, he would be ranked way higher in my rankings if I didn’t sniff out that Chip Kelly could be tanking. Also, a stat I keep going back to each week is this: Atlanta has given up an AVERAGE of 18 PPR points per game to RB over the last 8 weeks. That is nuts!
  6. Latavius Murray – Loveee me some Latavius Murray this week. He’s averaging over 20 touches per game over the last two games and San Diego is very suspect against power rushing RB’s. Again, Make one chalky lineup on Draftkings with Bell + DJ but make another for sure with a couple of these stud RB’s at a major discount.   
  7. Kenneth Dixon – ubber chalk. I Do like his skill set but not sure exactly how this game plays out. I have to monitor the weather as we are forecasting for heavy rain. If the rain holds I’m going more all in on Flacco. If the rain comes, I will have some Dixon shares.
  8. LeGarrout Blount – If you read my articles you will know I target the Denver run game every week. It’s hard to forecast Bill Belichecks game plan week to week so that is the only reason he is ranked 8th.

 

SNEAKYLamar Miller, Isiah Crowell, Zeek, Coleman

 

FADE: Ajaji, Gore, Howard, Murray,

 

WIDE RECEIVERS

 

  1. Mike Evans – He was number 1 last week for me and just because he had his second dud in as many games, its week like this that will define what kind of DFS player you will be in your career. If you want to be a donkey and go with the rest of the world and fade him because he hurt your bankroll and feelings last week (believe me had he hit 4x I would have won at least 15k) I can promise you that you will never win in the long run. Now, I will say this, because of the sheer construction of lineups this week and the expensive price of Bell, Dj and McCoy it makes it a more ideal strategy to pay up for RB’s this week and thus this leads you will know money left over for a stud WR. Again, you have to make a few lineups to create variance but get Evans in one of your main lineups….his matchup is just too juicy. Or just sign up to our site to get the lineups!!!
  2. T. Hilton – Love this sneaky play here. T.Y. is coming in at a projected 11% owned which is next to nothing in terms of his relative upside potential. Keep in mind Hilton has crazy splits when he plays at home, or in a dome. This week he plays away, but in a dome on turf. Here’s some food for thought: When Donte Montcrief is out, which he is, T.Y. is averaging 7.2 catches for 108 yards and 1 touchdown. You can’t guarantee many things in DFS but don’t be too scared of the Vikings matchup on paper. Luck will pepper him with at least 10-14 targets.
  3. Odell Beckham Jr.– He’s skyrocketed up my rankings once again this week. I just don’t trust Eli in the rain with winds gusting at 25 mph. I was worried about the shadow coverage of Darius Slay but Beckham will be in the slot for a majority in this game and Slay will not be traveling with him most of the time.  
  4. Michael Crabtree – For the 4 people left still reading my article you will know that I am targeting the warm weather in sunny San Diego. Crabtree gets an elite matchup this week since lockdown CB Casey Heyward will be shadowing Amari Cooper. Crabtree is ‘questionable’ but don’t let that scare you away. He’s playing and will be highly involved.
  5. Stefon Diggs – Diggs would be my number 3 if I have a better understanding on how his knee is feeling. I will know more after the game but Diggs has a premier matchup against a journeyman CB. The Colts are getting toasted over the last 4 weeks in the secondary giving up the 8th most passing yards per game. He is a PPR beast on draftkings and for some sneaky reason vegas juiced up the Vikings implied point total by 2 full points since Monday.
  6. Mike Wallace – Just like I attacked the Eagles suspect secondary with Desean and Garcon last week, I love inserting Wallace into a few GPP’s. I’m really going to watch that weather update though on the impending rain.    
  7. Allen Robinson – I’m sticking to my guns on this one and for everyone laughing at this plug in play I hope to laugh to the bank if you aren’t with me! He is coming in at a ridiculous price of $4,400 and is 6th in the NFL in redzone targets for all the negative press he gets.  
  8. Larry Fitzgerald – Carson Palmer can’t throw it deep and outside anymore so he targets DJ, Fitz and Greshman. Don’t bite on the J.J. nelson stuff.
  9. Jordan Matthews – in a really good spot in the slot against a weak CB.
  10. Dontrell Inman – I like Tyrell the Gazell as well but Oakland is much weaker in the middle of the field vs the outside.
  11. Aldreck Robertson – I’m picking the preseason all-star over J.J. Nelson and Gabriel for the cheap play of the week. Use him with your DJ and Bell lineups and thank me later.   

 

Sneaky – Sammy Watkins, Sanu, Pryor, Adams, Rishard Matthews, TyFreak

FADES – J.J. Nelson (trust me), Cooper, Demaryius, Brown, Nelson,

 

 

TIGHT END

  1. Ladarius Green – Cincinnati can’t stop the TE and he will be low owned after he burned everyone last week.
  2. Antonio Gates – Telling you, but into the narrative. Rivers is trying to get him the ball to break the TD record.
  3. Kyle Rudolf – Absolute nuts spot for a TE (wow im starting to like Bradford a lot…)
  4. Travis Kelce – Not the best spot but he’s a freak. Expensive though and tough to put into an optimal lineup.  
  5. Jermain Greshman– punt play at 2,500 but seeing 5 targets a week. He might be in my main lineup to make dj + bell work.

 

Fade - eifert, ertz,

 

Defense – Minnesota, Houston, Bills, Baltimore, KC, NYG

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1 comment

Nickolas Tannahill

December 18, 2016

Agree completely… and my friend and I have concluded these plays before seeing this post. Love it man!!

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