Matchups to Attack
Dede Westbrook vs Kevin Johnson
Dede Westbrook has only played in four games this season, but it is clear that he is a huge part of the Jacksonville team. In those four starts, he is averaging a 5.0/58.8/0.3 line on 8.3 targets per game. Westbrook ran an elite 4.34 40-yard dash at his Pro Day, and Houston is a team that has struggled against speed receivers this season. As noted by Scott Fish, Brandin Cooks and T.Y. Hilton have similar 40-yard dash times as Westbrook, and they have combined for a 10/306/4 line in two games.
In his limited games, Westbrook has lined up the majority of his snaps (43%) as the left outside receiver. He will face off against Kevin Johnson, who has played 71% of his snaps as the Texans right outside cornerback. Johnson has struggled quite a bit this season, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ worst corner. He is allowing a ridiculous 75% catch rate, while being targeted on 22% of his routes. He also ranks in the bottom-15 of the NFL in yards per route covered this season. Westbrook is the type of receiver that should be able to take advantage of Johnson’s poor gameplay this week.
Kendall Wright vs Nevin Lawson
It is impossible to trust Kendall Wright. He is averaging only 4.9 targets per game, but the Chicago Bears finally opened up their passing attack last week, and Wright saw 11 targets. He caught 10 of them for 107 yards, but failed to find the end zone. If Chicago is going to continue to let Mitchell Trubisky develop, Wright should be a major beneficiary. His inconsistencies have kept his price tag down, making him a high upside tournament option.
Wright has played 73% of his snaps out of the slot this season. He will get a matchup against Nevin Lawson, who has recently moved to slot corner. On the season, Lawson has only played 5% of his snaps in the slot. Overall, he has allowed a 69% catch rate this season. He has also been targeted on 20% of his routes covered. He will likely continue to struggle at his new position, and he has graded out as the seventh worst cornerback in the NFL, per Pro Football Focus. He is the weak link in the Detroit secondary, making it more likely Chicago will attack him this weekend.
Stefon Diggs vs Dre Kirkpatrick
Most people were expecting a breakout season from Stefon Diggs, but that has not been the case. Even so, he has total 48 receptions for 694 yards and five touchdowns on 75 attempts through 11 games. He has flashed elite upside this season, but he is not necessarily a focal point of the offense with Adam Thielen and Kyle Rudolph on the field. Diggs is also dealing with Case Keenum at quarterback, but Keenum has caught fire recently, throwing for at least two touchdowns in four of his last five games.
Diggs has lined up as the right outside receiver for Minnesota on 49% of his routes run this season. He will see a matchup against Dre Kirkpatrick, who has played 96% of his snaps as the left outside corner for Cincinnati. He has graded out as a bottom-five cornerback in the NFL, according to Pro Football Focus, allowing a 57% catch rate, while being targeted on 17% of his snaps. Diggs is not a safe option, but this is a matchup he can exploit, making him a viable option on this slate.
Matchups to Avoid
Tyreek Hill vs Casey Hayward
Tyreek Hill has looked outstanding this season, specifically flashing consistent over his last five games. On the season, he is averaging a 4.9/75.8/0.5 line on 7.1 targets per game. Hill has struggled at home, though, where he has recorded only 27 receptions for 266 yards and no touchdowns through six games. He has also scored single digit DK points in four of his six home games this season.
It is unknown at this point if Hill will be shadowed by Casey Hayward, but it is expected. If he is not, he will play roughly one-third of his snaps against Hayward, Trevor Williams, and Desmond King, who each have graded out as top-nine cornerbacks in the NFL. Hayward is the best of the group, though, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ best corner. He has only been targeted on 15% of his routes covered, allowing a 43% catch rate. He has shut down elite receivers on a near weekly basis, making Hill a tough option to trust on this slate.
DeAndre Hopkins vs A.J. Bouye
DeAndre Hopkins has been an elite receiver this season, totaling 88 receptions for 1,233 yards and 11 touchdowns through only 13 games. He has scored double digit DK points in 12 of his 13 games this season, as well. With that being said, Hopkins has only scored one touchdown on the road as opposed to 10 touchdowns at home. He has also been targeted significantly less on the road this season, which comes as a bit of a concern.
Hopkins has played 53% of his snaps as the left outside receiver for Houston. He has also played 30% of his snaps as the right outside receiver. He will spend the majority of his time against A.J. Bouye, but he will also be matched up against Jalen Ramsey for a bit of the game. Both of those players have graded out as top-five cornerbacks in the NFL, per Pro Football Focus. Bouye, Hopkins’ main opponent this week, has been targeted on only 18% of his routes covered. He has also allowed only a 45% catch rate. Hopkins is the type of player that can perform against anyone, but Jacksonville has a duo of cornerbacks that will be able to slow his production down.
Robby Anderson vs Marshon Lattimore
Robby Anderson has been enjoying a breakout season, recording 52 receptions for 848 yards and seven touchdowns through 13 games. He has struggled on the road, though, averaging a 3.0/35.5/0.3 through six road starts. He will also see a new quarterback in Bryce Petty this week after Josh McCown was injured last week. Petty played limited snaps last week, but only completed two of nine passes for 14 yards. It will be difficult for Anderson to replicate some of his better stat lines with his new quarterback.
Anderson has played the majority of his snaps (42%) as the Jets right outside receiver. That likely will not matter this week, though, as Marshon Lattimore is expected to shadow him. Lattimore is a rookie, but he has picked up the speed of the NFL quickly, grading out as a top-five cornerback, according to Pro Football Focus. Lattimore has allowed a 51% catch rate, while being targeted on only 15% of his routes covered. Anderson is not an efficient receiver, specifically with Petty at quarterback, making him a player to avoid in a tough matchup.