Drew Brees/Alvin Kamara/Michael Thomas
The New Orleans Saints have featured one of the best offenses in the NFL this season, ranking in the top-five in total yards (395.7) and points (28.3) per game. This week, they get an elite matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who are allowing 381.7 total yards and 23.9 points per game this season. They have also allowed at least 20 points in each of their last six games. The Saints are currently -7.5 point favorites in a game set at 50.5 points, giving them an implied team total of 29 points this week.
Drew Brees has been struggling a bit recently, but he has displayed quite a bit of upside this season. Through 15 games, he is averaging 272.6 yards and 1.5 touchdowns per game. He also found quite a bit of success against Tampa Bay earlier this season, throwing for 263 yards and two touchdowns on only 27 attempts. Michael Thomas has been Brees’ favorite option this season, leading the team with 141 targets. He has turned those into a 98/1,151/5 line, although his touchdown total is a bit low after leading the team with 16 red zone targets. With that being said, he has found the end zone in three of his last four games, suggesting he will continue to see positive regression on touchdowns in this final game. The final part of this stack is Alvin Kamara, who makes sense over Mark Ingram for a few reasons. Kamara is the receiving back of the duo, ranking second on the team with 93 targets. He also has 111 carries this season, totaling 1,426 yards and 12 touchdowns on 186 touches. Furthermore, Kamara has seen 12 carries in each of his last two games after seeing double digit carries only three times in his first 13 games. Over the last two weeks, Kamara has out-touched Ingram 37 to 33. He is the higher upside option, especially since he has been seeing extra opportunities.
Matthew Stafford/Marvin Jones Jr./Kenny Golladay
The Detroit Lions have been forced to rely heavily on their passing attack this season because of an inconsistent run game. Through 15 games, they rank sixth in the NFL in passing yards (259) per game and eighth in passing touchdowns (26). They get a tremendous matchup against the Green Bay Packers, who are allowing 232 passing yards per game, while also allowing 27 passing touchdowns and a 99.7 opposing QB rating this season. Green Bay is dealing with multiple injuries in their secondary, leaving replacement level talent on the field at times. The Lions are -7 point favorites in a game set at 43.5 points, and they have a respectable implied team total of 25.3 points this week.
The Lions are not playing for anything anymore, but Matthew Stafford is still expected to draw the start. He has been a better player at home this season, where he is averaging 277.7 yards and 2.0 touchdowns per game this season. He is a player that comes with a significantly higher floor at home, as well. Marvin Jones Jr. is the top stacking option with Stafford because of his big play potential. Through 15 games, he is averaging 3.8 receptions, 68.0 yards, and 0.5 touchdowns on 6.8 targets per game. Most importantly, Jones leads the Lions in red zone targets, which has resulted in him have twice as many touchdowns as anyone else on the team. Golden Tate makes sense as another stacking option, but Kenny Golladay is a more intriguing option, especially for tournaments. He has seen his role grow recently, as he is averaging 5.7 targets per game over the last three weeks. He is also averaging 3.7 receptions for 23.7 yards per game over that span. While that is far from elite, Golladay has been targeted on deep balls, but he has not been able to connect with Stafford yet. This is a high upside stack that should strictly be used in tournaments.
Jacoby Brissett/T.Y. Hilton/Jack Doyle
The Indianapolis Colts have had one of the worst passing attacks in the NFL this season. They rank in the bottom-three of the NFL in passing yards (186) per game and passing touchdowns (12). That will not matter in this matchup, though, as they face off against the Houston Texans, who have one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Through 15 games, they are allowing 246 passing yards per game, while also allowing 29 passing touchdowns and a 100.3 QB rating this season. Houston has allowed at least 23 points in six of their last seven games, allowing opponents to average 29.4 points per game over that span. The Colts are -4.5 point favorites in a game set at 41 points, giving them an implied team total of 22.8 points.
Jacoby Brissett has not been an elite quarterback this season, as he is averaging 198.9 yards and 0.8 touchdowns per game. With that being said, he is also averaging 16.1 rushing yards and 0.3 rushing touchdowns per game this season. He also had his second best game of the season against Houston, throwing for 308 yards and two touchdowns on 30 attempts. T.Y. Hilton is the most important player in this stack. He is a receiver that relies heavily on speed, which is something Houston struggles to guard. In their first game, Hilton posted an elite 5/175/2 line, recording 37.5 DK points. He only need 48 yards to reach 1,000 this season, as well, and the Colts will likely be looking to force the ball to him until he reaches that milestone. Jack Doyle is the other focal point of the Colts offense. He is leading the team 7.4 targets per game this season, turning those into a 5.4/46.6/0.2 line. He has also seen 18 targets over the last two weeks, and it’s clear the Colts are looking to keep him heavily involved in the offense as the season comes to an end.
High Upside GPP Stack
Jimmy Garoppolo/Carlos Hyde/Marquise Goodwin
Jimmy Garoppolo took over at quarterback four weeks ago for the San Francisco 49ers, and they are averaging 27.5 points per game over that span. They have quickly turned their offense around from below average to above average with one player. This week, they get a matchup against the Los Angeles Rams, who have featured a slightly above average offense this season. With that being said, the 49ers were able to score 44 points against the Jacksonville Jaguars, who many people believe have the best defense in the NFL this season. The Rams may also bench multiple starters, making this matchup a bit more appealing.
Garoppolo has essentially played in four games this season, averaging 312.5 yards and 1.0 touchdown per game. He is seemingly getting better as he sees more time on the field with the starters. In his last game, he totaled three touchdowns against a tough Jacksonville defense. His favorite target has been Marquise Goodwin, who is averaging a 6.8/89.0/0.0 line on 9.8 targets per game since Garoppolo has taken over. He will continue to be peppered with targets as one of the default number one receiver for San Francisco. Carlos Hyde has seemingly taken a hit since the quarterback switch, but he is still seeing a heavy workload. Over the last four weeks, Hyde is averaging 64.0 total yards and 0.5 touchdowns on 19.0 touches per game. He will continue to be the featured back in an explosive offense, making him a must start part of this stack.