0 [Week 18 - Playoffs] - Game Theory and Contrarian Stacks | DFS Karma

[Week 18 - Playoffs] - Game Theory and Contrarian Stacks

Top WR vs CB Analysis

  • Guys - I highly recommend lowering your cash game entries this week. Just too much volatility but if you do, don’t be a fool. Jam in Ben / Wilson, AB, Odell, Bell etc if you decide to play a bunch of cash. Also, below is a way to win Tournaments.   A lot of players will have similar cores. My objective is to give you an outside the box thinking approach that can take down a tournament.

 

  • My Advice this week – make 3 lineups in all the 3 max entry tournaments. Make two tournaments with Laveon Bell to get the expected 70% ownership but make a team (Wilson + Baldwin) without Bell…..and Pray!! It’s the only way to win big on slates like this. Your two “cashier” lineups will make you breathe better but you need one ‘hammer’ to potential win big this week.

 

 

  1. Russell Wilson + Baldwin + Graham + Bolden

 

  • Full disclosure – this is my FAVORITE GPP stack of the week. Heavy ownership will come in on Ben and Rodgers and rightfully so we could get Wilson a little less owned this week. He’s taken off his knee brace and that may seem like not a big deal but it is. We’ve been monitoring this all year and he is getting very healthy right now at the perfect time. Detroit is ranked 32nd in DVOA against the pass and the Seahawks just can’t runt he ball. I think this game hits the over and I really love bringing it back with Bolden. He quietly is 3rd in the NFL in redzone looks this season and he will be avoiding Sherman. Tate will be the popular lion to pair in this game stack but you get Bolden at a much lower ownership, lower price and higher upside based on the matchup.

 

  1. Ben + Bell + Antonio Brown + Landry + Zach Zenner

 

  • This will be a semi popular stack but you will need even cheaper players to make this work. Throw in Paul Richardson who saw 67% of the snaps last week in place of Tyler Lockett. He can easily bust one and for that price along with him returning kicks could be that extra “kick” you need for your lineup to get over the top. Remember, we talked a lot this year about home / road splits. Would you have guessed that Ben has heavier splits in his favor at home vs. Drew Brees in what people call the “Coors field of football.”

 

  1. Matt Moore + Bell + Beckham + Antonio Brown + Cook

 

  • Matt Moore just made my game theory column in week 1 of the playoffs. Let that sink in for a moment. Ok good, now lets evaluate. On a sheer points per dollar basis his price tag of only $5,100 give us cap space to fit in all of the studs of the week. And notice a trend. I am sticking to the same principals and philosophy I have used all year. I play the matchups like any true analytical nerd analyzes data. I’m not getting suckered into the high public ownership on Rodgers + Jordy + Devonta Adams. Can they exceed as a three-man unit? Sure. But the Giants are ranked 1st against the pass and 3rd against the run. They have the best secondary in the NFL and they shut down Jordy Nelson in their first meeting. Next, let’s go to Vegas. The Packers game started as a -7 point spread and was immediately bet down to -4. And the Steelers / Dolphins game is expected for the highest over / under on the week. We fully expect Matt Moore having to play catch-up so we just have to hope that he throws for 2 touchdowns. Remember, the standard deviation at the QB position is much less volatile.

 

About the Author: Anthony Carson, @acarson777 on twitter and @acarson79 on Instagram, is the CEO of AC Karma Sports and one of most respected DFS players in the industry. Anthony specializes in MLB and NFL and comes from a math background that helps him excel in his analytical projections and an advocate in understanding ownership percentages in all DFS sports

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