Marcus Mariota/Eric Decker/Delanie Walker
The Cleveland Browns have struggled quite a bit early this season. They are currently allowing 26.2 points per game, ranking sixth last in the NFL. Their pass defense has also struggled mightily. They are only allowing an average of 226 passing yards per game, but they have also allowed a league-high 14 passing touchdowns this season. They are allowing a quarterback rating of 111.0, as well. Furthermore, the Browns rank 25th against the quarterback and 32nd against the tight end this season. Tennessee has the third highest team total on the slate at 26 points, giving them elite upside.
It is tough to get behind Mariota with his injury. He proved he can throw with the best of them against Indianapolis, but his upside was severely capped without his rushing potential. With that being said, this is a good enough matchup to overlook, especially knowing Mariota has another week to get healthy. It was tough choosing between Rishard Matthews and Eric Decker, but I opted for the hot-hand in Decker, who is coming off a 7/88 line against the Colts. Decker also leads the team in targets inside the 10-yard line. Delanie Walker is the real target on this offense this week. He is second on the team in targets, but leads the team in receptions. He has yet to find the end zone through the air this season, but this game could change that. The Browns have struggled against replacement-level talent at tight end this season, and Walker is an elite tight end. He should be featured in the offense, and he should have no problems posting the best line of his season this week.
Brett Hundley/Jordy Nelson/Davante Adams
The New Orleans Saints are a frustrating defense. They will struggle for 90 yards before creating a turnover, which could be a problem for a young quarterback. With that being said, New Orleans is allowing 268 passing yards per game this season, ranking fifth last in the NFL. They have also been a below average defense, allowing 23.2 points per game. They currently rank 23rd against quarterbacks and 28th against wide receivers this season. Green Bay is obvious underdogs in this game, but the total is set at 47.5 points. They showed offensive flashes last week against a tougher Minnesota defense, and they could put points up in a hurry against New Orleans.
Brett Hundley certainly struggled last week, but he did show flashes against a tough defense. This will be a much easier matchup for him and he will get a week of practice with the first team, as well. He has little to no game experience in the NFL, but his college tape suggests he comes with tremendous upside after he ran for 1,747 yards and 30 touchdowns in three seasons at UCLA. Green Bay also has an elite set of wide receivers to pair Hundley with. Nelson and Adams have combined for 38.7% of the team’s total targets, even though they both have dealt with injuries. They are also the top red zone targets, combining for 78.6% of the team’s receiving touchdowns. This is a high upside stack that will not break the bank because of Hundley’s low price tag.
Jared Goff/Todd Gurley/Robert Woods
The Los Angeles Rams have featured an elite offense through the first six weeks of the season. They are currently averaging 359.8 total yards and a league-high 29.8 points per game. They get an elite matchup against the Arizona Cardinals this week. Arizona is allowing 340.7 total yards and 26.3 points per game this season. Their points allowed ranks in the bottom five of the NFL. Los Angeles is currently a -3.5 point favorite in a game set at 47 points, giving them an implied team total of 25.3 points. This is the fourth highest implied team total on the slate.
Jared Goff has been enjoying a breakout season. His completion percentage, touchdown percentage, and yards per attempt have all increased, while his interception percentage dropped. That has a lot to do with his system, which features LA’s star running back, Todd Gurley. Gurley has accounted for 74.9% of the team’s rushing yards and 66.7% of the team’s rushing touchdowns. He is also third on the team in targets and receiving yards, but he leads the team in receptions and receiving touchdowns. Surprisingly, Robert Woods is leading the team in targets, and he is the third part of the stack. He has seen at least seven targets in three of his last four games, and he has seemingly clearly taken over as their top wide receiver. He has also been producing well without scoring a touchdown this season. It is only a matter of time before he finds the end zone.
High Upside GPP Stack
Tyrod Taylor/LeSean McCoy/Zay Jones
The Buffalo Bills offense has looked awful this season, averaging 271.6 total yards and 17.8 points per game, but this is a matchup they can take advantage of. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has struggled to contain anyone, allowing 403.4 total yards and 24.2 points per game. They enter this game ranking 31st against quarterbacks and 32nd against wide receivers. The Vegas line is not out for this game yet, but it would be shocking if the Bills do not have a respectable total for this weekend.
LeSean McCoy is the obvious part of this stack, as he is their leading rusher and leading healthy receiver. He has been a surprisingly consistent option without finding the end zone this season, and he comes with tremendous upside because of his receiving ability. Zay Jones makes the most sense as the other stacking option. He is the only other healthy player with more than 10 targets this season, and he leads the wide receivers in targets. Furthermore, he is leading the Bills in red zone targets. He has seen at least five targets in three of his last four games, and he finally gets a game in which he can take advantage of the matchup. Buffalo is certainly a risky stack, but they will be low owned and come with tremendous upside in this matchup.