Frosty's Hat Trick
Week 3 is here! We are finally building some data and hopefully that will improve as we go along. Some teams are looking extremely solid, and some are super shaky (Looking at you Man U).
This week we have two one-sided games with Liverpool and Arsenal, and the rest of them are very close match-ups. While Arsenal is a big favorite, I am having a difficult time accepting the fact that some of their players are optimal plays. Everyone is priced up and I might have very little to zero Arsenal exposure. On the other hand, give me all of the Liverpool I can fit please.
Now onto the hat trick:
Top: To Salah, or to not Salah. Mane $10,700 has been having a hot start of the season and some people will make the case to play Mane over Salah. As of now, I am going with Salah $11,300. It was a little unexpected that Milner took the PK last week, but if Salah takes the PK and scores, everyone would be talking about Salah as a lock. If you want an awesome pivot, move down to Aubameyang $8,800. Aubameyang missed a very easy goal contributing to the slow start of the season. According to anytime goal scorer odds, Salah has a 76% change of a goal and Aubameyang has a high 60% chance to score. Can you fit two of these studs in your lines? Maybe in GPP but I don’t think it will be optimal.
Mid: Why is Sigurdsson only $7,100? As long as he doesn’t go to mid $8,000 he will be a staple in all of my lineups. Everton made a lot of signings and they should be very competitive in most of their games. If you want some extra good karma on him, our own data analyst Ryan will be in attendance of this game.
Value: The cheapest player I would consider optimal this week is $5,900 Arnautovic. The possible lineup for tomorrow has Arnautovic playing the 9 position and he will take any shots he gets outside of the box. He could also draw a couple of fouls and if there is a PK he will take it. If you want some cheap Arsenal exposure, Iwobi is only $5,400 but he is definitely not an optimal play.
Top: So many solid midfield options this week. The solid midfield options are the main reason why I am debating if I should fade Salah or not. In this range we find Fraser $8,500, Milner $7,800, and Maddison $7,600. The three of them have a very solid floor and the three of them come from scoring a goal. If I had to pick just one of them, I would go with Maddison, who has been playing extremely well for Leicester. If you want to be a little contrarian on cash (but with an amazing floor) play all three of them and fade Salah.
Mid: with so many good top options is hard to come down to a mid-value play. If Mooy is out, Pascal Gross for $6,300 becomes a decent play. However, it will probably be more gpp. The optimal build will have either two, or all three of the top midfielders.
Value: There is couple of injuries to keep an eye out for, if those players are out, some value plays might open up. Please tune into our live twitch tomorrow morning to find out if these value options are playing. As of today, Wijnaldum $3,900 is the best value option available. I usually don’t like to roster him (or many defensive midfielders on DK), but he provides very cheap exposure to the highest total team. And since he is in the late game, you can pair him with Salah/Mane/Milner/TAA/etc and if you are far behind in the cash line you can make some pivots to try to cash.
Top: No Holebas or Trippier in this slate, but we do get Trent Alexander-Arnold at $6,600. He is extremely pricey but he is playing for the biggest favorite in the slate and his floor might be worth the price. If there is no way you can fit him in your lineup, I am okay with his teammate Roberston or Chillwell $5,500.
Mid: There are couple of really good plays at this range. I really like Hadergjonaj $4,300 who we played last week, his teammate Lowe $4,100 or $4,200 Bennet who has been showing a very nice floor for Cardiff in the past two weeks.
Value: I do not see any punt defenders worth mentioning as of now. If you truly need the savings then play whatever is the cheapest starting defender and be ok with them getting you 1-2 points. Even the centerbacks for the big favorites (Liverpool and Arsenal) are priced up and there is no point in playing them with Bennet and Lowe just $100/200 more.
Top: I am not sure if I can afford Alisson for $6,000. He has an almost guaranteed clean sheet and win but I don’t know if he is even going to have any saves. And for $6,000 I don’t want to find out.
Mid: Schmeichel $4,600 will probably be the chalk of the week. I like the safety he provides but I might get a little weird and… (look below)
Value: Call me crazy but Fabianski is looking like he could be an optimal play, especially if you are fading Arsenal and paying up for Salah. If he doesn’t make to my optimal he will definitely be in at least one of my gpp’s. At his low price we don’t need much for him to reach value.
Parlay of the week This week is a little tough because of the big disparities in some match-ups. Thanks to the lines Arsenal and Liverpool are almost impossible to bet. But here is a Parlay I am putting only 1 unit on:
Manchester City -1 ½ -130 |Leicester +215 |Everton v Bournemouth Over 2 ½ -135 | Chelsea -1/2 -150 | Arsenal -278 |Liverpool – 703 for a 24.11x multiplier.
Straight bets: Manchester City – 1 ½ -130 4 units | Everton v Bournemouth Over 2 ½ - 135 3 units | Leicester +215 for 2 units.