0 9/14/18 EPL DFS - Frosty's Hat Trick | DFS Karma

9/14/18 EPL DFS - Frosty's Hat Trick

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Frosty's Hat Trick


EPL is back! After an International break that felt like it lasted forever, we have a very interesting slate. We have two massive favorites and another big favorite. This week is going to be very tough, which is usually better for the people that spend more time researching, going over stats, and put in the work (Or read’s Frosty’s hat trick).

Manchester City and Chelsea are massive favorites. Arsenal is also a big favorite against Newcastle United. Manchester United is also a home favorite against Watford but I think they are a trap this week. I won’t be having too much exposure to Man U. I like to keep my lineups as balanced as possible but I believe this week might be more of a "studs and scrubs" approach. You could build a balanced lineup that could score solid floor points, but there are too many expected goals to not have any in your lineups. 

Now onto the hat trick:



Top: This is the week I wish I had unlimited salary so I can fit a bunch of studs. At the top we find two very viable options on Aguero $10,600 and Hazard $10,500. It is very hard to pick just one of them but I am leaning more towards Aguero. If Willian is out, Hazard gets a bump and I don’t think you are crazy for wanting to play both. There is a possibility that both of them together build an optimal lineup this week.  Lukaku at $9,400 is an amazing leverage play on GPP’s, he will be under owned for what his production could be.

Mid: Right down the middle we find a lot of different GPP options. I don’t think any of the forwards in the middle of the road are making my optimal lineup but I will definitely have shares of Aubameyang $8,100, Lacazette $8,500, Morata $7,500, Jesus $8,700, and Rashford $7,900 on my GPP lineups. 

Value: With so many studs in the slate we will have to find some good value with goal upside. In the bottom of the salary options my favorite is either Demarai Gray $5,600 and Mounie (if starting) for $4,700. Huddersfield and Leicester City are both underdogs but I believe they are pulling the upset this week. If they do, it will come through these two guys.




Top:If Mahrez $9,000 is starting he should gather a lot of ownership. He provides a better floor than Aguero with potentially the same ceiling as him. One very viable lineup build is Mahrez/Hazard fading Aguero.

Mid: As I said before, I have no idea why Leicester City is an underdog against Bournemouth who has given up two goals in each of their games. With that said, Maddison $7,300 is an amazing play.

Value: There is a ton of really good options that I love in this range. I am playing one, if not two of the following value midfields, $5,800 Gundogan, Mooy, Ghezzal, Seri, Brooks, Xhaka, or Biling. Of that grouping, My favorite is Gundogan. My top GPP option is Seri. And if I need savings I am playing Biling.




Top:Mendy $7,100 and Holebas $5,600 are amazing plays. Mendy is pretty close to a lock for me (unless I need the savings). This is probably a good week to play a defender in your flex. 

Mid: Lock button on Rico $5,400. With Fraser expected to miss this game he takes  a lot of the set pieces and there is a path for him to get a goal or assist. 

Value:  Huddersfield fullbacks continue to be extremely cheap. I prefer Lowe $4,00 but I also like $3,800 Hadergjonaj.




Top: My favorite top option is David De Gea for $5,300. Out of the top options he will probably see the most shot against. He is not a huge favorite to get the cleansheet bonus but I like the save upside. 

Mid: I think Ben Foster $4,300 is going to be my cash goalkeeper. He is in an amazing spot against Man U who will take a ton of shots and they have not been very good to begin the season. Watford has started hot this season and I believe they pull the upset against Man U.

Value:If you are fading Chelsea, I will strongly recommend playing $3,700 Etheridge. As long as Chelsea doesn’t score 4 goals, he will easily meet value. 




Parlay of the week

This week I have a CRAZY parlay that I am playing one unit on. I also have couple of variations of that Parlay that should provide safety. If you are playing the crazy parlay I suggest to play the other safer ones as well.

Safe parlay: 4 units – Arsenal -1/2 -110, Manchester City -846, Chelsea -592 for a 6 unit profit.

Step 2: 1 unit (same three) + Leicester +201 and Huddersfield +219 for 22.96 profit.

Step 3 (aka crazy parlay) : one unit (previous 5) + Watford for a 98.19 unit profit!!!

Straight bets: Arsenal – ½ -110 4 units | Leicester +201 for 2 units.



As always, if you would like to interact with me, you can find me in the slack channel or on twitter @FrostyDFS. Don't forget to check out all the other amazing content we have at dfskarma.com for every DFS sport! 

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