Bales' MyBookie Bets
Mike Montgomery (-155)
Mike Montgomery’s numbers aren’t overly impressive, but he has allowed two or fewer earned runs in seven of his last 10 games (six starts), including each of his last three. Montgomery has also allowed only four earned runs over 13.2 innings against the Pittsburgh Pirates this season. Furthermore, he generally doesn’t throw deep into games, meaning Pittsburgh could see time against the Chicago Cubs fourth ranked bullpen. The Pirates are also averaging only 3.5 runs over the last week, while also posting a 46.7% win rate on the road. Chicago is averaging 4.7 runs per game over the last week, and they have also looked elite at home, where they feature a 62.7% win rate. They get a matchup against Chris Archer, who has struggled with a 6.12 ERA on the road since being traded to the Pirates. He has also allowed four or more runs in five of his last 10 starts.
Bet 2 units on Chicago Cubs -1.5 RL to win 2.9 units (+145)
San Francisco Giants
Chris Stratton (-115)
I have virtually no faith in Chris Stratton in this game, but these odds are a bit ridiculous. Over his last five games, Stratton has two games in which he shut his opponent out over eight and nine innings. He has also allowed only two earned runs over 13 innings (excluding his last start) against the San Diego Padres. Neither team features a great offense, but the San Francisco Giants feature a 53.9% win rate at home, while San Diego’s road win rate sits at only 43%. The Giants get a matchup against Robbie Erlin, who owns a 3-4 record with a 6.09 ERA through 20 road games (six starts). Erlin has allowed three or more earned runs in four of his last five starts, while also struggling to pitch deep into games.
Bet 2 units on the San Francisco -1.5 RL to win 3.9 units (+195)
Josh James (-190)
James has only thrown in two games this season, but he features a 1-0 record with a 2.81 ERA. He isn’t a pitcher that is going to throw deep into this game, but that’s essentially what we want. The Houston Astros features the best bullpen in the MLB, and utilizing James for a few innings before taking advantage of matchups with elite bullpen arms is an underutilized strategy in the MLB. They also get a matchup against the Toronto Blue Jays, who feature a 3-4 record, while averaging 4.1 runs per game over the last week. Houston gets a matchup against Sam Gaviglio, who has thrown well at home at times this season, but owns a 1-5 record with a 5.96 ERA over his last 10 starts. He’s another pitcher that struggles to throw deep into games, but Toronto has struggled with the 27th ranked bullpen this season. The Astros have also caught fire to end the season, as they are 5-1, while averaging 6.5 runs per game over the last week.
Bet 4 units on the Houston -1.5 RL to win 3.3 units (-120)
Parlay 2 units on Washington -1.5 RL, Boston -1.5 RL, Cleveland ML, and Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 RL to win 10.1 units (+503)